bayesRatings

Pirates at Reds

MLB · Sunday, Aug 2 · 12:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final PIT 2 – CIN 10
← MLB / Aug 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000100010240
CIN3132000110100
Team box
PIT·CIN
4
hits
10
0
home runs
3
3
walks
7
13
strikeouts
9
166
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler StephensonCIN2-4212
Nathaniel LoweCIN3-4202
Ke'Bryan HayesCIN1-3111
Sal StewartCIN1-5111
Elly De La CruzCIN1-4002
Dane MyersCIN1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch Keller (L)PIT2.06742
Chase Burns (W)CIN6.02129

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +8
PIT +8
123456789
largest lead: CIN 8 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Aug 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.6 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.8
PiratesThe matchupReds
−101Our fair odds+101
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.01Power rating−0.07
5.1Runs / game4.1
4.8Allowed / game4.8
9.0Hits / game7.7
1.24Home runs / game1.29
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
56−56Season record52−58
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10150%+11446.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+10150%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCIN wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more40%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more30%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 2.40 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CIN
Aug 1 at CIN
last game
Aug 1 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 110+ games
PIT·CIN
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
5.1
runs / game
4.1
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
56−56
season record
52−58
29−28
home record
25−31
27−28
away record
27−27
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
9.0
hits / game
7.7
1.24
home runs / game
1.29
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.61
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

PIT · CIN · 127 days
Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Aug 1at CINPIT 4 − 1
Jul 31at CINCIN 8 − 7
Jul 30at CINCIN 3 − 2
Jun 28at PITPIT 9 − 4
Jun 27at PITCIN 9 − 7
Jun 26at PITCIN 6 − 4
May 3at PITPIT 1 − 0
May 2at PITPIT 17 − 7
May 1at PITPIT 9 − 1
Apr 1at CINPIT 8 − 3

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 1at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 31at CIN7 − 8L
Jul 30at CIN2 − 3L
Jul 29vs ARI0 − 3L
Jul 28vs ARI7 − 8L
Jul 27vs ARI3 − 2W
Jul 26vs CHC8 − 7W
Jul 25vs CHC0 − 11L
Jul 24vs CHC2 − 3L
Jul 22at NYY0 − 2L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 1vs PIT1 − 4L
Jul 31vs PIT8 − 7W
Jul 30vs PIT3 − 2W
Jul 29vs CLE1 − 6L
Jul 28vs CLE2 − 0W
Jul 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Jul 26at STL5 − 3W
Jul 25at STL0 − 7L
Jul 24at STL4 − 2W
Jul 22at SEA5 − 3W