bayesRatings

Reds at Nationals

MLB · Sunday, Aug 9 · 11:15 AM CT · Nationals Park · Final CIN 1 – WSH 7
← MLB / Aug 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN010000000141
WSH021000137130
Team box
CIN·WSH
4
hits
13
0
home runs
1
0
walks
2
9
strikeouts
7
148
pitches thrown
140
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Abimelec OrtizWSH2-3111
Keibert RuizWSH3-3101
Andres ChaparroWSH1-2002
Daylen LileWSH2-4001
Jacob YoungWSH0-3102
Jorbit VivasWSH2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady Singer (L)CIN6.08313
Brad LordWSH2.22104
Will Dion (W)WSH3.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +6
CIN +6
123456789
largest lead: WSH 6 · CIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 49%, WSH 51% · Updated Aug 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 5.5 – 5.5 CIN
Expected total
10.9
RedsThe matchupNationals
+105Our fair odds−105
5.5Expected runs5.5
−0.06Power rating−0.07
4.1Runs / game5.3
4.7Allowed / game5.2
7.6Hits / game8.6
1.33Home runs / game1.43
3.7Walks drawn / game3.5
56−60Season record58−61
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · WSH chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:15 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10549%−10350.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10551%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati RedsPKour margin————
WSHWashington NationalsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 11%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more38%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more38%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.549%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 15 Kstarted
WSHBrad Lord RP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 5.11 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·WSH
Aug 8 at WSH
last game
Aug 8 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 116+ games
CIN·WSH
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.1
runs / game
5.3
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.2
56−60
season record
58−61
29−31
home record
25−34
27−29
away record
33−27
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.6
hits / game
8.6
1.33
home runs / game
1.43
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.53
errors / game
0.74

Rating Trend

CIN · WSH · 134 days
Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 8−2
Aug 8at WSHWSH 8 − 2
Aug 7at WSHWSH 5 − 3
May 14at CINCIN 15 − 1
May 13at CINWSH 8 − 7
May 12at CINWSH 10 − 4
Jul 23, 2025at WSHCIN 5 − 0
Jul 22, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 1
Jul 21, 2025at WSHWSH 10 − 8
May 4, 2025at CINWSH 4 − 1
May 3, 2025at CINWSH 11 − 6

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Aug 8at WSH2 − 8L
Aug 7at WSH3 − 5L
Aug 6vs ATH6 − 5W
Aug 5vs ATH3 − 2W
Aug 4vs ATH5 − 4W
Aug 2vs PIT10 − 2W
Aug 1vs PIT1 − 4L
Jul 31vs PIT8 − 7W
Jul 30vs PIT3 − 2W
Jul 29vs CLE1 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Aug 8vs CIN8 − 2W
Aug 7vs CIN5 − 3W
Aug 6at PHI3 − 7L
Aug 5at PHI10 − 4W
Aug 4at PHI0 − 5L
Aug 3at PHI3 − 6L
Aug 2at ATL2 − 4L
Aug 1at ATL3 − 8L
Jul 31at ATL2 − 6L
Jul 30at ATL4 − 5L