bayesRatings

Nationals at Mets

MLB · Sunday, Aug 16 · 12:40 PM CT · Citi Field · Final WSH 3 – NYM 4
← MLB / Aug 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH011000100350
NYM000310004101
Team box
WSH·NYM
5
hits
10
1
home runs
1
2
walks
3
11
strikeouts
9
133
pitches thrown
119
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis TorrensNYM1-3112
Keibert RuizWSH2-3002
Abimelec OrtizWSH1-4111
Bo BichetteNYM3-3000
Jared YoungNYM2-4101
Jorge PolancoNYM1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jake Irvin (L)WSH6.08436
Christian Scott (W)NYM6.15327
Kodai Senga (S)NYM1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 2 · WSH 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 48%, NYM 52% · Updated Aug 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 4.8 – 4.7 NYM
Expected total
9.5
NationalsThe matchupMets
+110Our fair odds−110
4.8Expected runs4.7
−0.07Power rating−0.04
5.3Runs / game4.2
5.2Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game7.9
1.43Home runs / game1.22
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
60−65Season record55−69
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NYM chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11048%+14041.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−11052%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals−0.1our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byNYM wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more38%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more28%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 8 Kstarted
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NYM
Aug 15 at NYM
last game
Aug 15 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 124+ games
WSH·NYM
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.3
runs / game
4.2
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.5
60−65
season record
55−69
27−36
home record
27−34
33−29
away record
28−35
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.6
hits / game
7.9
1.43
home runs / game
1.22
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.71
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

WSH · NYM · 141 days
Washington NationalsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Aug 15at NYMNYM 5 − 4
Aug 14at NYMNYM 4 − 1
May 21at WSHNYM 2 − 1
May 20at WSHWSH 8 − 4
May 19at WSHWSH 9 − 6
May 18at WSHNYM 16 − 7
Apr 30at NYMWSH 5 − 4
Apr 29at NYMWSH 14 − 2
Apr 28at NYMNYM 8 − 0
Sep 21, 2025at NYMWSH 3 − 2

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 15at NYM4 − 5L
Aug 14at NYM1 − 4L
Aug 13vs CHC7 − 0W
Aug 12vs CHC6 − 12L
Aug 11vs CHC6 − 8L
Aug 9vs CIN7 − 1W
Aug 8vs CIN8 − 2W
Aug 7vs CIN5 − 3W
Aug 6at PHI3 − 7L
Aug 5at PHI10 − 4W

NYM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Aug 15vs WSH5 − 4W
Aug 14vs WSH4 − 1W
Aug 12at ATL3 − 6L
Aug 11at ATL0 − 4L
Aug 10at ATL8 − 5W
Aug 9at PIT11 − 1W
Aug 8at PIT0 − 9L
Aug 7at PIT6 − 4W
Aug 6at CLE13 − 6W
Aug 5at CLE6 − 5W