bayesRatings

Mets at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 11 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final NYM 0 – ATL 4
← MLB / Aug 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000000000040
ATL00001012430
Team box
NYM·ATL
4
hits
3
0
home runs
2
3
walks
6
5
strikeouts
4
139
pitches thrown
115
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL1-3212
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3111
Carson BengeNYM2-4000
Mauricio DubonATL0-2001
Michael Harris IIATL1-3000
Francisco LindorNYM1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nolan McLean (L)NYM6.01123
Martin Perez (W)ATL6.04032

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: ATL 4 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 43%, ATL 57% · Updated Aug 11

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 4.1 NYM
Expected total
8.8
MetsThe matchupBraves
+130Our fair odds−130
4.1Expected runs4.8
−0.03Power rating+0.17
4.2Runs / game4.9
4.6Allowed / game3.9
8.0Hits / game8.5
1.21Home runs / game1.34
3.2Walks drawn / game3.0
53−67Season record71−48
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · ATL chance
Our model fair43.4%56.6%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+13043%+10947.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−13057%−13757.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.7
NYMNew York Mets+0.7our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more42%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 21 Kstarted
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·ATL
Aug 10 at ATL
last game
Aug 10 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 119+ games
NYM·ATL
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.2
runs / game
4.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.9
53−67
season record
71−48
25−34
home record
39−21
28−33
away record
32−27
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
8.5
1.21
home runs / game
1.34
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.66
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

NYM · ATL · 136 days
New York MetsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Aug 10at ATLNYM 8 − 5
Jul 29at NYMATL 1 − 0
Jul 29at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 27at NYMNYM 14 − 3
Jul 6at ATLNYM 7 − 6
Jul 5at ATLNYM 10 − 9
Jul 4at ATLATL 14 − 3
Jul 3at ATLATL 5 − 3
Jun 14at NYMNYM 8 − 1
Jun 13at NYMATL 3 − 1

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 10at ATL8 − 5W
Aug 9at PIT11 − 1W
Aug 8at PIT0 − 9L
Aug 7at PIT6 − 4W
Aug 6at CLE13 − 6W
Aug 5at CLE6 − 5W
Aug 4at CLE6 − 2W
Aug 2vs MIA0 − 2L
Aug 1vs MIA2 − 6L
Jul 31vs MIA2 − 5L

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Aug 10vs NYM5 − 8L
Aug 9at NYY2 − 1W
Aug 8at NYY4 − 5L
Aug 7at NYY2 − 3L
Aug 6vs MIA11 − 3W
Aug 5vs MIA4 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIA4 − 2W
Aug 2vs WSH4 − 2W
Aug 1vs WSH8 − 3W
Jul 31vs WSH6 − 2W