bayesRatings

Braves at Yankees

MLB · Friday, Aug 7 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final ATL 2 – NYY 3
← MLB / Aug 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ATL0000000110271
NYY0000000021370
Team box
ATL·NYY
7
hits
7
2
home runs
0
2
walks
7
11
strikeouts
15
187
pitches thrown
152
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL1-4111
Austin RileyATL1-3111
Ryan McMahonNYY2-3001
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2-5000
Drake BaldwinATL2-4000
Austin WellsNYY1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler MahleATL6.03029
Tyler Kinley (L)ATL0.20021
Max FriedNYY6.13027
David Bednar (W)NYY1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
ATL +3
12345678910
largest lead: NYY 1 · ATL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 49%, NYY 51% · Updated Aug 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.2 – 4.2 ATL
Expected total
8.5
BravesThe matchupYankees
+105Our fair odds−105
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.18Power rating+0.17
4.9Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game3.8
8.5Hits / game7.7
1.35Home runs / game1.43
3.0Walks drawn / game3.7
70−45Season record64−51
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NYY chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+10549%+10947.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−10551%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta BravesPKour margin————
NYYNew York YankeesPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 16%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more35%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more25%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 16 Kstarted
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NYY
Aug 6 vs MIA
last game
Aug 5 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 115+ games
ATL·NYY
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.9
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
3.8
70−45
season record
64−51
39−20
home record
27−25
31−25
away record
37−26
W8
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
7.7
1.35
home runs / game
1.43
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.48
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

ATL · NYY · 132 days
Atlanta BravesNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Jul 20, 2025at ATLNYY 4 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at ATLNYY 12 − 9
Jul 18, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 3
Jun 23, 2024at NYYATL 3 − 1
Jun 22, 2024at NYYNYY 8 − 3
Jun 21, 2024at NYYATL 8 − 1
Aug 16, 2023at ATLATL 2 − 0
Aug 15, 2023at ATLATL 5 − 0
Aug 14, 2023at ATLATL 11 − 3
Aug 24, 2021at ATLNYY 5 − 4

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W8
Aug 6vs MIA11 − 3W
Aug 5vs MIA4 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIA4 − 2W
Aug 2vs WSH4 − 2W
Aug 1vs WSH8 − 3W
Jul 31vs WSH6 − 2W
Jul 30vs WSH5 − 4W
Jul 29at NYM1 − 0W
Jul 29at NYM2 − 3L
Jul 27at NYM3 − 14L

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 5vs STL1 − 3L
Aug 4vs STL2 − 0W
Aug 3vs STL7 − 13L
Aug 2at CHC2 − 1W
Aug 1at CHC2 − 5L
Jul 31at CHC2 − 0W
Jul 30at CHW1 − 2L
Jul 29at CHW5 − 6L
Jul 28at CHW3 − 2W
Jul 27at CHW9 − 5W