bayesRatings

Braves at Yankees

MLB · Sunday, Aug 9 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final ATL 2 – NYY 1
← MLB / Aug 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ATL0000001001240
NYY0000000100141
Team box
ATL·NYY
4
hits
4
1
home runs
1
0
walks
3
14
strikeouts
9
127
pitches thrown
125
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trent GrishamNYY2-4111
Matt OlsonATL1-4111
Michael Harris IIATL1-4001
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-3000
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4000
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grant HolmesATL6.03022
Raisel Iglesias (W)ATL1.00002
Tyler Kinley (S)ATL1.00001
Cam SchlittlerNYY7.031011
Paul Blackburn (L)NYY2.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
ATL +3
12345678910
largest lead: NYY 0 · ATL 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 48%, NYY 52% · Updated Aug 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.2 – 4.2 ATL
Expected total
8.4
BravesThe matchupYankees
+109Our fair odds−109
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.17Power rating+0.18
4.9Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game3.8
8.5Hits / game7.7
1.35Home runs / game1.42
3.0Walks drawn / game3.7
70−47Season record66−51
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NYY chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+10948%+12444.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−10952%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta BravesPKour margin————
NYYNew York YankeesPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 1 run: 17%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more35%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more25%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NYY
Aug 8 at NYY
last game
Aug 8 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 117+ games
ATL·NYY
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
4.9
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
3.8
70−47
season record
66−51
39−20
home record
29−25
31−27
away record
37−26
L2
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
7.7
1.35
home runs / game
1.42
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.48
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

ATL · NYY · 134 days
Atlanta BravesNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Aug 8at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Aug 7at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Jul 20, 2025at ATLNYY 4 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at ATLNYY 12 − 9
Jul 18, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 3
Jun 23, 2024at NYYATL 3 − 1
Jun 22, 2024at NYYNYY 8 − 3
Jun 21, 2024at NYYATL 8 − 1
Aug 16, 2023at ATLATL 2 − 0
Aug 15, 2023at ATLATL 5 − 0

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Aug 8at NYY4 − 5L
Aug 7at NYY2 − 3L
Aug 6vs MIA11 − 3W
Aug 5vs MIA4 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIA4 − 2W
Aug 2vs WSH4 − 2W
Aug 1vs WSH8 − 3W
Jul 31vs WSH6 − 2W
Jul 30vs WSH5 − 4W
Jul 29at NYM1 − 0W

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 8vs ATL5 − 4W
Aug 7vs ATL3 − 2W
Aug 5vs STL1 − 3L
Aug 4vs STL2 − 0W
Aug 3vs STL7 − 13L
Aug 2at CHC2 − 1W
Aug 1at CHC2 − 5L
Jul 31at CHC2 − 0W
Jul 30at CHW1 − 2L
Jul 29at CHW5 − 6L