bayesRatings

Mets at Pirates

MLB · Friday, Aug 7 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final NYM 6 – PIT 4
← MLB / Aug 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM1041000006100
PIT0000002024120
Team box
NYM·PIT
10
hits
12
1
home runs
0
3
walks
4
7
strikeouts
4
131
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Marcus SemienNYM1-4113
Carson BengeNYM2-2102
A.J. EwingNYM3-4200
Jared TrioloPIT2-3001
Francisco LindorNYM1-3101
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac Thornton (W)NYM5.04023
Carmen Mlodzinski (L)PIT3.07511

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +6
NYM +6
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · NYM 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 47%, PIT 53% · Updated Aug 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.7 – 4.5 NYM
Expected total
9.2
MetsThe matchupPirates
+111Our fair odds−111
4.5Expected runs4.7
−0.05Power rating−0.01
4.2Runs / game5.0
4.6Allowed / game4.8
7.9Hits / game8.9
1.21Home runs / game1.22
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
50−66Season record57−60
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · PIT chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11147%+11446.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−11153%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.2our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 12%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more38%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more28%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMZac Thornton SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 9 Kstarted
PITCarmen Mlodzinski RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·PIT
Aug 6 at CLE
last game
Aug 6 at MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 116+ games
NYM·PIT
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.2
runs / game
5.0
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.8
50−66
season record
57−60
25−34
home record
29−28
25−32
away record
28−32
W3
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
2−8
7.9
hits / game
8.9
1.21
home runs / game
1.22
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.67
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

NYM · PIT · 132 days
New York MetsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Mar 29at NYMPIT 4 − 3
Mar 28at NYMNYM 4 − 2
Mar 26at NYMNYM 11 − 7
Jun 29, 2025at PITPIT 12 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 2
Jun 27, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 1
May 14, 2025at NYMPIT 4 − 0
May 13, 2025at NYMNYM 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Jul 8, 2024at PITPIT 8 − 2

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Aug 6at CLE13 − 6W
Aug 5at CLE6 − 5W
Aug 4at CLE6 − 2W
Aug 2vs MIA0 − 2L
Aug 1vs MIA2 − 6L
Jul 31vs MIA2 − 5L
Jul 30vs MIA4 − 2W
Jul 29vs ATL0 − 1L
Jul 29vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 27vs ATL14 − 3W

PIT · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Aug 6at MIL2 − 5L
Aug 5at MIL2 − 4L
Aug 4at MIL2 − 4L
Aug 3at MIL4 − 3W
Aug 2at CIN2 − 10L
Aug 1at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 31at CIN7 − 8L
Jul 30at CIN2 − 3L
Jul 29vs ARI0 − 3L
Jul 28vs ARI7 − 8L