bayesRatings

Pirates at Brewers

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 5 · 6:30 PM CT · American Family Field · Final PIT 2 – MIL 4
← MLB / Aug 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000000200231
MIL00030100440
Team box
PIT·MIL
3
hits
4
1
home runs
1
3
walks
6
14
strikeouts
10
150
pitches thrown
133
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Endy RodriguezPIT1-3112
William ContrerasMIL1-3211
Christian YelichMIL2-4101
Andrew VaughnMIL1-3002
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-4100
Nick GonzalesPIT1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul Skenes (L)PIT5.02346
Kyle Harrison (W)MIL5.010110
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +4
PIT +4
123456789
largest lead: MIL 4 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 40%, MIL 60% · Updated Aug 5

Expected margin
MIL by 0.9
Expected score
MIL 4.8 – 3.9 PIT
Expected total
8.7
PiratesThe matchupBrewers
+148Our fair odds−148
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.00Power rating+0.32
5.1Runs / game5.0
4.8Allowed / game3.8
8.9Hits / game8.6
1.23Home runs / game0.91
3.6Walks drawn / game4.1
57−58Season record70−43
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · MIL chance
Our model fair40.4%59.6%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+14840%+11446.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14860%−13757.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.9
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.9our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.9 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more43%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more32%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.06 ERA, 26 Kstarted
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 6.17 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·MIL
Aug 4 at MIL
last game
Aug 4 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 113+ games
PIT·MIL
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
5.1
runs / game
5.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.8
57−58
season record
70−43
29−28
home record
37−21
28−30
away record
33−22
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.9
hits / game
8.6
1.23
home runs / game
0.91
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.1
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.60
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

PIT · MIL · 130 days
Pittsburgh PiratesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 4−6
Aug 4at MILMIL 4 − 2
Aug 3at MILPIT 4 − 3
Jul 12at PITPIT 14 − 5
Jul 11at PITPIT 3 − 2
Jul 11at PITPIT 7 − 6
Apr 26at MILMIL 5 − 0
Apr 25at MILPIT 6 − 3
Apr 24at MILPIT 6 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at PITMIL 10 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at PITMIL 4 − 1

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 4at MIL2 − 4L
Aug 3at MIL4 − 3W
Aug 2at CIN2 − 10L
Aug 1at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 31at CIN7 − 8L
Jul 30at CIN2 − 3L
Jul 29vs ARI0 − 3L
Jul 28vs ARI7 − 8L
Jul 27vs ARI3 − 2W
Jul 26vs CHC8 − 7W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 4vs PIT4 − 2W
Aug 3vs PIT3 − 4L
Aug 2at LAA0 − 3L
Aug 1at LAA3 − 1W
Jul 31at LAA6 − 2W
Jul 29at SF3 − 16L
Jul 28at SF8 − 2W
Jul 27at SF0 − 3L
Jul 26vs COL11 − 2W
Jul 25vs COL8 − 5W