bayesRatings

Pirates at Brewers

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 4 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final PIT 2 – MIL 4
← MLB / Aug 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT001010000250
MIL001210004110
Team box
PIT·MIL
5
hits
11
2
home runs
2
2
walks
2
11
strikeouts
8
139
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson ChourioMIL3-4112
Andrew VaughnMIL1-3111
Endy RodriguezPIT1-3111
Jacob GonzalezPIT1-3111
William ContrerasMIL2-4100
Luis LaraMIL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jared Jones (L)PIT4.08314
Logan Henderson (W)MIL6.04218
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 2 · PIT 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 41%, MIL 59% · Updated Aug 4

Expected margin
MIL by 0.9
Expected score
MIL 4.8 – 3.9 PIT
Expected total
8.7
PiratesThe matchupBrewers
+144Our fair odds−144
3.9Expected runs4.8
+0.00Power rating+0.32
5.1Runs / game5.0
4.8Allowed / game3.8
9.0Hits / game8.6
1.22Home runs / game0.90
3.6Walks drawn / game4.2
57−57Season record69−43
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · MIL chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+14441%+12943.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14459%−15460.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.9
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.9our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.9 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more43%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more33%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 19 Kstarted
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·MIL
Aug 3 at MIL
last game
Aug 3 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 112+ games
PIT·MIL
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
5.1
runs / game
5.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.8
57−57
season record
69−43
29−28
home record
36−21
28−29
away record
33−22
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
5−5
9.0
hits / game
8.6
1.22
home runs / game
0.90
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.61
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

PIT · MIL · 129 days
Pittsburgh PiratesMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 4−6
Aug 3at MILPIT 4 − 3
Jul 12at PITPIT 14 − 5
Jul 11at PITPIT 3 − 2
Jul 11at PITPIT 7 − 6
Apr 26at MILMIL 5 − 0
Apr 25at MILPIT 6 − 3
Apr 24at MILPIT 6 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at PITMIL 10 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at PITMIL 4 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at PITMIL 5 − 2

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 3at MIL4 − 3W
Aug 2at CIN2 − 10L
Aug 1at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 31at CIN7 − 8L
Jul 30at CIN2 − 3L
Jul 29vs ARI0 − 3L
Jul 28vs ARI7 − 8L
Jul 27vs ARI3 − 2W
Jul 26vs CHC8 − 7W
Jul 25vs CHC0 − 11L

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 3vs PIT3 − 4L
Aug 2at LAA0 − 3L
Aug 1at LAA3 − 1W
Jul 31at LAA6 − 2W
Jul 29at SF3 − 16L
Jul 28at SF8 − 2W
Jul 27at SF0 − 3L
Jul 26vs COL11 − 2W
Jul 25vs COL8 − 5W
Jul 24vs COL2 − 5L