bayesRatings

Mets at Braves

MLB · Monday, Aug 10 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final NYM 8 – ATL 5
← MLB / Aug 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM5110000018120
ATL200210000590
Team box
NYM·ATL
12
hits
9
2
home runs
0
5
walks
6
8
strikeouts
11
163
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brett BatyNYM1-3114
Francisco LindorNYM3-5311
Jared YoungNYM2-4102
Mauricio DubonATL1-5002
Drake BaldwinATL2-5101
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Christian ScottNYM4.07416
Daniel Duarte (W)NYM2.00010
Kodai Senga (S)NYM1.00012
Bryce Elder (L)ATL5.010734

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +5
NYM +5
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · NYM 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 43%, ATL 57% · Updated Aug 10

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 3.9 NYM
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupBraves
+133Our fair odds−133
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.04Power rating+0.18
4.2Runs / game4.9
4.6Allowed / game3.9
7.9Hits / game8.4
1.20Home runs / game1.35
3.2Walks drawn / game2.9
52−67Season record71−47
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · ATL chance
Our model fair43.0%57.0%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+13343%+12444.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−13357%−14859.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
NYMNew York Mets+0.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 20 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·ATL
Aug 9 at PIT
last game
Aug 9 at NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 118+ games
NYM·ATL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
4.2
runs / game
4.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.9
52−67
season record
71−47
25−34
home record
39−20
27−33
away record
32−27
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
8−2
7.9
hits / game
8.4
1.20
home runs / game
1.35
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.66
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

NYM · ATL · 135 days
New York MetsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Jul 29at NYMATL 1 − 0
Jul 29at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 27at NYMNYM 14 − 3
Jul 6at ATLNYM 7 − 6
Jul 5at ATLNYM 10 − 9
Jul 4at ATLATL 14 − 3
Jul 3at ATLATL 5 − 3
Jun 14at NYMNYM 8 − 1
Jun 13at NYMATL 3 − 1
Jun 12at NYMNYM 7 − 5

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 9at PIT11 − 1W
Aug 8at PIT0 − 9L
Aug 7at PIT6 − 4W
Aug 6at CLE13 − 6W
Aug 5at CLE6 − 5W
Aug 4at CLE6 − 2W
Aug 2vs MIA0 − 2L
Aug 1vs MIA2 − 6L
Jul 31vs MIA2 − 5L
Jul 30vs MIA4 − 2W

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Aug 9at NYY2 − 1W
Aug 8at NYY4 − 5L
Aug 7at NYY2 − 3L
Aug 6vs MIA11 − 3W
Aug 5vs MIA4 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIA4 − 2W
Aug 2vs WSH4 − 2W
Aug 1vs WSH8 − 3W
Jul 31vs WSH6 − 2W
Jul 30vs WSH5 − 4W