bayesRatings

Mets at Pirates

MLB · Sunday, Aug 9 · 12:35 PM CT · PNC Park · Final NYM 11 – PIT 1
← MLB / Aug 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM20341010011150
PIT001000000141
Team box
NYM·PIT
15
hits
4
2
home runs
1
7
walks
0
10
strikeouts
13
120
pitches thrown
197
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bo BichetteNYM5-5303
Luis Robert Jr.NYM2-5114
Jake MangumPIT2-4111
Jared YoungNYM3-5101
Francisco AlvarezNYM1-3211
Carson BengeNYM2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Manaea (W)NYM7.031011
Jared Jones (L)PIT3.06833

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +10
NYM +10
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · NYM 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 47%, PIT 53% · Updated Aug 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.8 – 4.5 NYM
Expected total
9.3
MetsThe matchupPirates
+113Our fair odds−113
4.5Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating−0.01
4.1Runs / game5.1
4.6Allowed / game4.8
7.9Hits / game8.9
1.19Home runs / game1.21
3.2Walks drawn / game3.7
51−67Season record58−61
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · PIT chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11347%+11945.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−11353%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more39%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·PIT
Aug 8 at PIT
last game
Aug 8 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 118+ games
NYM·PIT
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.1
runs / game
5.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.8
51−67
season record
58−61
25−34
home record
30−29
26−33
away record
28−32
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
8.9
1.19
home runs / game
1.21
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.67
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

NYM · PIT · 134 days
New York MetsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Aug 8at PITPIT 9 − 0
Aug 7at PITNYM 6 − 4
Mar 29at NYMPIT 4 − 3
Mar 28at NYMNYM 4 − 2
Mar 26at NYMNYM 11 − 7
Jun 29, 2025at PITPIT 12 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 2
Jun 27, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 1
May 14, 2025at NYMPIT 4 − 0
May 13, 2025at NYMNYM 2 − 1

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 8at PIT0 − 9L
Aug 7at PIT6 − 4W
Aug 6at CLE13 − 6W
Aug 5at CLE6 − 5W
Aug 4at CLE6 − 2W
Aug 2vs MIA0 − 2L
Aug 1vs MIA2 − 6L
Jul 31vs MIA2 − 5L
Jul 30vs MIA4 − 2W
Jul 29vs ATL0 − 1L

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 8vs NYM9 − 0W
Aug 7vs NYM4 − 6L
Aug 6at MIL2 − 5L
Aug 5at MIL2 − 4L
Aug 4at MIL2 − 4L
Aug 3at MIL4 − 3W
Aug 2at CIN2 − 10L
Aug 1at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 31at CIN7 − 8L
Jul 30at CIN2 − 3L