bayesRatings

Mets at Braves

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 12 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final NYM 3 – ATL 6
← MLB / Aug 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000001101370
ATL011010306120
Team box
NYM·ATL
7
hits
12
3
home runs
3
2
walks
1
9
strikeouts
5
113
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Austin RileyATL3-4211
Mike YastrzemskiATL2-2111
Drake BaldwinATL3-4001
Lane ThomasATL1-2111
Luis TorrensNYM1-3111
Bo BichetteNYM1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac Thornton (L)NYM6.07312
Tyler Mahle (W)ATL6.04107

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: ATL 4 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 43%, ATL 57% · Updated Aug 12

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 3.9 NYM
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupBraves
+133Our fair odds−133
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.04Power rating+0.18
4.2Runs / game4.9
4.6Allowed / game3.9
7.9Hits / game8.4
1.20Home runs / game1.34
3.2Walks drawn / game3.0
53−68Season record72−48
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · ATL chance
Our model fair42.9%57.1%
Kalshi39.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+13343%+15239.6%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−13357%−19165.6%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
NYMNew York Mets+0.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMZac Thornton SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 10 Kstarted
ATLTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·ATL
Aug 11 at ATL
last game
Aug 11 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 120+ games
NYM·ATL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
4.2
runs / game
4.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.9
53−68
season record
72−48
25−34
home record
40−21
28−34
away record
32−27
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
7−3
7.9
hits / game
8.4
1.20
home runs / game
1.34
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.65
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

NYM · ATL · 137 days
New York MetsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Aug 11at ATLATL 4 − 0
Aug 10at ATLNYM 8 − 5
Jul 29at NYMATL 1 − 0
Jul 29at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 27at NYMNYM 14 − 3
Jul 6at ATLNYM 7 − 6
Jul 5at ATLNYM 10 − 9
Jul 4at ATLATL 14 − 3
Jul 3at ATLATL 5 − 3
Jun 14at NYMNYM 8 − 1

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 11at ATL0 − 4L
Aug 10at ATL8 − 5W
Aug 9at PIT11 − 1W
Aug 8at PIT0 − 9L
Aug 7at PIT6 − 4W
Aug 6at CLE13 − 6W
Aug 5at CLE6 − 5W
Aug 4at CLE6 − 2W
Aug 2vs MIA0 − 2L
Aug 1vs MIA2 − 6L

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Aug 11vs NYM4 − 0W
Aug 10vs NYM5 − 8L
Aug 9at NYY2 − 1W
Aug 8at NYY4 − 5L
Aug 7at NYY2 − 3L
Aug 6vs MIA11 − 3W
Aug 5vs MIA4 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIA4 − 2W
Aug 2vs WSH4 − 2W
Aug 1vs WSH8 − 3W