bayesRatings

Cubs at Nationals

MLB · Thursday, Aug 13 · 3:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final CHC 0 – WSH 7
← MLB / Aug 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000000000010
WSH000150017100
Team box
CHC·WSH
1
hits
10
0
home runs
1
2
walks
1
11
strikeouts
8
130
pitches thrown
114
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Abimelec OrtizWSH2-4213
Dylan CrewsWSH2-4101
Daylen LileWSH2-4101
Jorbit VivasWSH1-3101
Michael BuschCHC1-3000
CJ AbramsWSH1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kevin Gausman (L)CHC4.27617
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH8.010210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +7
CHC +7
123456789
largest lead: WSH 7 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 57%, WSH 43% · Updated Aug 13

Expected margin
CHC by 1.5
Expected score
CHC 6.4 – 4.9 WSH
Expected total
11.3
CubsThe matchupNationals
−132Our fair odds+132
6.4Expected runs4.9
+0.28Power rating−0.07
5.2Runs / game5.4
4.3Allowed / game5.2
8.6Hits / game8.7
1.28Home runs / game1.44
4.3Walks drawn / game3.5
71−50Season record59−63
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · WSH chance
Our model fair56.9%43.1%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−13257%−14859.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+13243%+12444.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.5
CHCChicago Cubs−1.5our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.3
Over11.3our total————
Under11.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.5 expected
Chicago Cubs by 18 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 17 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 18 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byWSH wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more49%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more40%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.558%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 14 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·WSH
Aug 12 at WSH
last game
Aug 12 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 121+ games
CHC·WSH
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
5.2
runs / game
5.4
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.2
71−50
season record
59−63
35−24
home record
26−36
36−26
away record
33−27
W3
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.7
1.28
home runs / game
1.44
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.38
errors / game
0.73

Rating Trend

CHC · WSH · 138 days
Chicago CubsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Aug 12at WSHCHC 12 − 6
Aug 11at WSHCHC 8 − 6
Mar 29at CHCWSH 6 − 3
Mar 28at CHCCHC 10 − 2
Mar 26at CHCWSH 10 − 4
Sep 7, 2025at CHCWSH 6 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at CHCWSH 2 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 5
Jun 5, 2025at WSHCHC 7 − 1
Jun 4, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0

CHC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Aug 12at WSH12 − 6W
Aug 11at WSH8 − 6W
Aug 9at KC10 − 2W
Aug 8at KC3 − 6L
Aug 7at KC6 − 4W
Aug 6vs TOR3 − 2W
Aug 5vs LAD7 − 6W
Aug 4vs LAD5 − 1W
Aug 3vs LAD10 − 5W
Aug 2vs NYY1 − 2L

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Aug 12vs CHC6 − 12L
Aug 11vs CHC6 − 8L
Aug 9vs CIN7 − 1W
Aug 8vs CIN8 − 2W
Aug 7vs CIN5 − 3W
Aug 6at PHI3 − 7L
Aug 5at PHI10 − 4W
Aug 4at PHI0 − 5L
Aug 3at PHI3 − 6L
Aug 2at ATL2 − 4L