bayesRatings

Rangers at Athletics

MLB · Sunday, Aug 16 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final TEX 2 – ATH 5
← MLB / Aug 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX011000000271
ATH020000215130
Team box
TEX·ATH
7
hits
13
1
home runs
3
2
walks
3
12
strikeouts
5
141
pitches thrown
144
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX3-4112
Zack GelofATH2-5112
Lawrence ButlerATH2-4112
Tommy WhiteATH2-4211
Henry BolteATH3-5100
Max MuncyATH2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cody BradfordTEX4.08214
Jakob Junis (L)TEX1.02201
Jacob LopezATH6.05226
Luis Medina (W)ATH1.01002
Hogan Harris (S)ATH1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 3 · TEX 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 56%, ATH 44% · Updated Aug 16

Expected margin
TEX by 0.9
Expected score
TEX 5.7 – 4.8 ATH
Expected total
10.4
RangersThe matchupAthletics
−127Our fair odds+127
5.7Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating−0.36
4.1Runs / game4.3
4.4Allowed / game5.8
8.1Hits / game8.3
1.11Home runs / game1.19
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
61−63Season record48−75
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · ATH chance
Our model fair55.9%44.1%
Kalshi56.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−12756%−13156.7%———
ATHAthletics+12744%+11446.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.9
TEXTexas Rangers−0.9our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.9 expected
Texas Rangers by 16 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 15 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byATH wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more45%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more35%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXCody Bradford SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 2.40 ERA, 10 Kstarted
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·ATH
Aug 15 at ATH
last game
Aug 15 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 123+ games
TEX·ATH
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
4.1
runs / game
4.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.8
61−63
season record
48−75
32−27
home record
22−40
29−36
away record
26−35
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
8.3
1.11
home runs / game
1.19
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.42
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

TEX · ATH · 141 days
Texas RangersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
Aug 15at ATHTEX 5 − 3
Aug 14at ATHATH 8 − 3
Apr 26at TEXATH 2 − 1
Apr 25at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 24at TEXATH 8 − 1
Apr 16at ATHTEX 9 − 6
Apr 15at ATHATH 6 − 5
Apr 14at ATHATH 2 − 1
Apr 13at ATHTEX 8 − 1
Aug 31, 2025at ATHTEX 9 − 6

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 15at ATH5 − 3W
Aug 14at ATH3 − 8L
Aug 13at LAA0 − 7L
Aug 12at LAA2 − 5L
Aug 11at LAA2 − 3L
Aug 10at LAA4 − 1W
Aug 9vs BAL5 − 10L
Aug 8vs BAL5 − 1W
Aug 7vs BAL2 − 1W
Aug 5vs SF6 − 0W

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 15vs TEX3 − 5L
Aug 14vs TEX8 − 3W
Aug 12vs TB4 − 8L
Aug 11vs TB4 − 12L
Aug 10vs TB6 − 10L
Aug 9at BOS4 − 3W
Aug 8at BOS7 − 3W
Aug 7at BOS1 − 13L
Aug 6at CIN5 − 6L
Aug 5at CIN2 − 3L