bayesRatings

Athletics at Red Sox

MLB · Saturday, Aug 8 · 3:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final ATH 7 – BOS 3
← MLB / Aug 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000122101781
BOS2000000013100
Team box
ATH·BOS
8
hits
10
2
home runs
0
4
walks
4
7
strikeouts
15
168
pitches thrown
135
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler SoderstromATH1-4111
Henry BolteATH1-5111
Jonah HeimATH1-5002
Donovan WaltonATH1-2002
Jahmai JonesBOS3-5200
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-3002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gage Jump (W)ATH6.062211
Hogan Harris (S)ATH1.13112
Jake Bennett (L)BOS5.15435

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
ATH +4
123456789
largest lead: BOS 2 · ATH 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 35%, BOS 65% · Updated Aug 8

Expected margin
BOS by 1.9
Expected score
BOS 5.4 – 3.5 ATH
Expected total
8.9
AthleticsThe matchupRed Sox
+189Our fair odds−189
3.5Expected runs5.4
−0.36Power rating+0.22
4.3Runs / game4.5
5.8Allowed / game3.7
8.2Hits / game8.3
1.18Home runs / game1.03
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
45−71Season record64−51
1−9Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · BOS chance
Our model fair34.6%65.5%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+18935%+22930.4%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−18965%−27673.4%———
SpreadBOS by 1.9
ATHAthletics+1.9our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 1.9 expected
Athletics by 16 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: <1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 1%Athletics by 5 runs: 2%Athletics by 4 runs: 3%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 2 runs: 7%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 15 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 16 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more52%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more41%
Athletics wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 7.53 ERA, 17 Kstarted
BOSJake Bennett SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·BOS
Aug 7 at BOS
last game
Aug 7 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 115+ games
ATH·BOS
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
4.3
runs / game
4.5
5.8
runs allowed / game
3.7
45−71
season record
64−51
21−36
home record
29−29
24−35
away record
35−22
L9
streak
W9
1−9
last 10
9−1
8.2
hits / game
8.3
1.18
home runs / game
1.03
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.44
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

ATH · BOS · 133 days
AthleticsBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 6−4
Aug 7at BOSBOS 13 − 1
Jul 30at ATHBOS 5 − 4
Jul 29at ATHBOS 4 − 2
Jul 28at ATHATH 4 − 3
Jul 27at ATHBOS 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at BOSATH 5 − 3
Sep 17, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at BOSATH 2 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Sep 9, 2025at ATHBOS 6 − 0

ATH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Aug 7at BOS1 − 13L
Aug 6at CIN5 − 6L
Aug 5at CIN2 − 3L
Aug 4at CIN4 − 5L
Aug 2vs DET0 − 11L
Aug 1vs DET6 − 8L
Jul 31vs DET1 − 13L
Jul 30vs BOS4 − 5L
Jul 29vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 28vs BOS4 − 3W

BOS · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Aug 7vs ATH13 − 1W
Aug 6vs CHW12 − 11W
Aug 5vs CHW4 − 0W
Aug 4vs CHW14 − 2W
Aug 2at LAD8 − 4W
Aug 1at LAD3 − 2W
Jul 31at LAD9 − 4W
Jul 30at ATH5 − 4W
Jul 29at ATH4 − 2W
Jul 28at ATH3 − 4L