bayesRatings

Rays at Athletics

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 11 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final TB 12 – ATH 4
← MLB / Aug 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB20130123012110
ATH000200002481
Team box
TB·ATH
11
hits
8
6
home runs
1
4
walks
0
6
strikeouts
5
101
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Taylor WallsTB2-4223
Carson WilliamsTB1-1113
Victor Mesa Jr.TB2-5112
Lawrence ButlerATH1-4112
Junior CamineroTB1-3212
Yandy DiazTB1-5311
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick Martinez (W)TB9.08405
Mason Barnett (L)ATH4.05530

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +10
TB +10
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · TB 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 60%, ATH 40% · Updated Aug 11

Expected margin
TB by 1.5
Expected score
TB 5.9 – 4.4 ATH
Expected total
10.3
RaysThe matchupAthletics
−152Our fair odds+152
5.9Expected runs4.4
+0.14Power rating−0.35
4.5Runs / game4.3
4.1Allowed / game5.7
8.7Hits / game8.3
1.03Home runs / game1.18
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
72−46Season record47−72
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · ATH chance
Our model fair60.3%39.7%
Kalshi66.6%37.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−15260%−19966.6%———
ATHAthletics+15240%+16637.6%———
SpreadTB by 1.5
TBTampa Bay Rays−1.5our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.5 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 17 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 16 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%Athletics by 17 runs: <1%
← TB wins byATH wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more49%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more39%
Athletics wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 11 Kstarted
ATHMason Barnett RP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·ATH
Aug 10 at ATH
last game
Aug 10 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 118+ games
TB·ATH
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.35
4.5
runs / game
4.3
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.7
72−46
season record
47−72
41−18
home record
21−37
31−28
away record
26−35
W7
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
2−8
8.7
hits / game
8.3
1.03
home runs / game
1.18
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.60
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

TB · ATH · 136 days
Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
Aug 10at ATHTB 10 − 6
Aug 13, 2025at ATHTB 8 − 2
Aug 12, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at ATHTB 7 − 4
Jul 2, 2025at TBTB 6 − 5
Jul 1, 2025at TBATH 4 − 3
Jun 30, 2025at TBATH 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2024at ATHATH 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2024at ATHTB 4 − 2
Aug 20, 2024at ATHTB 1 − 0

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Aug 10at ATH10 − 6W
Aug 9at SEA4 − 1W
Aug 8at SEA3 − 2W
Aug 7at SEA2 − 1W
Aug 5at COL4 − 0W
Aug 4at COL9 − 7W
Aug 3at COL13 − 9W
Aug 2vs CHW1 − 9L
Aug 1vs CHW1 − 0W
Jul 31vs CHW1 − 6L

ATH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Aug 10vs TB6 − 10L
Aug 9at BOS4 − 3W
Aug 8at BOS7 − 3W
Aug 7at BOS1 − 13L
Aug 6at CIN5 − 6L
Aug 5at CIN2 − 3L
Aug 4at CIN4 − 5L
Aug 2vs DET0 − 11L
Aug 1vs DET6 − 8L
Jul 31vs DET1 − 13L