bayesRatings

Rays at Athletics

MLB · Monday, Aug 10 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final TB 10 – ATH 6
← MLB / Aug 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB10000018010121
ATH2000103006101
Team box
TB·ATH
12
hits
10
2
home runs
1
3
walks
2
6
strikeouts
8
156
pitches thrown
141
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB3-4212
Zack GelofATH2-4212
Junior CamineroTB1-5113
Jeff McNeilATH2-4101
Taylor WallsTB1-4102
Jonathan ArandaTB2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy PeraltaTB6.06315
Chris Roycroft (W)TB1.03300
Jacob LopezATH7.05215
Jose Suarez (L)ATH0.13411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
TB +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 4 · TB 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 60%, ATH 40% · Updated Aug 10

Expected margin
TB by 1.4
Expected score
TB 5.8 – 4.3 ATH
Expected total
10.1
RaysThe matchupAthletics
−149Our fair odds+149
5.8Expected runs4.3
+0.13Power rating−0.34
4.4Runs / game4.3
4.0Allowed / game5.7
8.6Hits / game8.3
1.02Home runs / game1.18
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
71−46Season record47−71
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · ATH chance
Our model fair59.8%40.2%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−14960%−16862.7%———
ATHAthletics+14940%+14041.7%———
SpreadTB by 1.4
TBTampa Bay Rays−1.4our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.1
Over10.1our total————
Under10.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.4 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 16 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← TB wins byATH wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more48%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more38%
Athletics wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.559%
Total over 10.542%
Total over 12.528%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 11.08 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 1.76 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·ATH
Aug 9 at SEA
last game
Aug 9 at BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 117+ games
TB·ATH
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
4.4
runs / game
4.3
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.7
71−46
season record
47−71
41−18
home record
21−36
30−28
away record
26−35
W6
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
2−8
8.6
hits / game
8.3
1.02
home runs / game
1.18
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.60
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

TB · ATH · 135 days
Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
Aug 13, 2025at ATHTB 8 − 2
Aug 12, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at ATHTB 7 − 4
Jul 2, 2025at TBTB 6 − 5
Jul 1, 2025at TBATH 4 − 3
Jun 30, 2025at TBATH 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2024at ATHATH 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2024at ATHTB 4 − 2
Aug 20, 2024at ATHTB 1 − 0
Aug 19, 2024at ATHATH 3 − 0

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Aug 9at SEA4 − 1W
Aug 8at SEA3 − 2W
Aug 7at SEA2 − 1W
Aug 5at COL4 − 0W
Aug 4at COL9 − 7W
Aug 3at COL13 − 9W
Aug 2vs CHW1 − 9L
Aug 1vs CHW1 − 0W
Jul 31vs CHW1 − 6L
Jul 30vs TEX3 − 2W

ATH · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Aug 9at BOS4 − 3W
Aug 8at BOS7 − 3W
Aug 7at BOS1 − 13L
Aug 6at CIN5 − 6L
Aug 5at CIN2 − 3L
Aug 4at CIN4 − 5L
Aug 2vs DET0 − 11L
Aug 1vs DET6 − 8L
Jul 31vs DET1 − 13L
Jul 30vs BOS4 − 5L