bayesRatings

Rays at Mariners

MLB · Sunday, Aug 9 · 3:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final TB 4 – SEA 1
← MLB / Aug 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0001120004142
SEA100000000160
Team box
TB·SEA
14
hits
6
0
home runs
0
2
walks
2
4
strikeouts
9
140
pitches thrown
147
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB4-5101
Chandler SimpsonTB4-5100
Liam HicksTB2-5002
Cole YoungSEA2-4001
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-4000
Cedric MullinsTB1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ian Seymour (W)TB6.05127
Steven Matz (S)TB1.00000
Emerson Hancock (L)SEA4.29213

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 1 · TB 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 52%, SEA 48% · Updated Aug 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 3.9 – 3.9 SEA
Expected total
7.8
RaysThe matchupMariners
−108Our fair odds+108
3.9Expected runs3.9
+0.12Power rating−0.02
4.4Runs / game3.9
4.1Allowed / game4.0
8.6Hits / game7.6
1.03Home runs / game1.16
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
70−46Season record56−62
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · SEA chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−10852%−10751.8%———
SEASeattle Mariners+10848%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.1our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 17%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%
← TB wins bySEA wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more35%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more25%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 7.30 ERA, 16 Kstarted
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·SEA
Aug 8 at SEA
last game
Aug 8 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 116+ games
TB·SEA
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.4
runs / game
3.9
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
70−46
season record
56−62
41−18
home record
33−28
29−28
away record
23−34
W5
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
7.6
1.03
home runs / game
1.16
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.59
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

TB · SEA · 134 days
Tampa Bay RaysSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 3−7
Aug 8at SEATB 3 − 2
Aug 7at SEATB 2 − 1
Jul 12at TBSEA 8 − 2
Jul 11at TBTB 6 − 1
Jul 10at TBTB 7 − 2
Sep 3, 2025at TBTB 9 − 4
Sep 2, 2025at TBTB 6 − 5
Sep 1, 2025at TBTB 10 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 3
Aug 9, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 4

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Aug 8at SEA3 − 2W
Aug 7at SEA2 − 1W
Aug 5at COL4 − 0W
Aug 4at COL9 − 7W
Aug 3at COL13 − 9W
Aug 2vs CHW1 − 9L
Aug 1vs CHW1 − 0W
Jul 31vs CHW1 − 6L
Jul 30vs TEX3 − 2W
Jul 29vs TEX3 − 0W

SEA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Aug 8vs TB2 − 3L
Aug 7vs TB1 − 2L
Aug 6vs DET0 − 11L
Aug 5vs DET4 − 2W
Aug 4vs DET0 − 8L
Aug 2vs MIN7 − 6W
Aug 1vs MIN4 − 3W
Jul 31vs MIN3 − 5L
Jul 30at LAD2 − 6L
Jul 29at LAD2 − 4L