bayesRatings

Rays at Athletics

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 12 · 2:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final TB 8 – ATH 4
← MLB / Aug 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0214000108151
ATH002000020471
Team box
TB·ATH
15
hits
7
1
home runs
2
3
walks
1
4
strikeouts
7
138
pitches thrown
157
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Liam HicksTB3-5113
Zack GelofATH2-4211
Lawrence ButlerATH1-4111
Carlos CortesATH1-4002
Yandy DiazTB2-5101
Cedric MullinsTB2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew Rasmussen (W)TB5.04213
Jack Perkins (L)ATH5.012612

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +6
TB +6
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · TB 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 61%, ATH 39% · Updated Aug 12

Expected margin
TB by 1.6
Expected score
TB 6.0 – 4.5 ATH
Expected total
10.5
RaysThe matchupAthletics
−156Our fair odds+156
6.0Expected runs4.5
+0.15Power rating−0.37
4.5Runs / game4.3
4.1Allowed / game5.8
8.7Hits / game8.3
1.07Home runs / game1.18
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
73−46Season record47−73
9−1Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · ATH chance
Our model fair60.9%39.1%
Kalshi70.5%33.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−15661%−23970.5%———
ATHAthletics+15639%+19833.5%———
SpreadTB by 1.6
TBTampa Bay Rays−1.6our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.5
Over10.5our total————
Under10.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.6 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 17 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 16 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 2 runs: 7%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%Athletics by 17 runs: <1%
← TB wins byATH wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more50%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more40%
Athletics wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.562%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.531%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 27 Kstarted
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 8.36 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·ATH
Aug 11 at ATH
last game
Aug 11 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 119+ games
TB·ATH
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
4.5
runs / game
4.3
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.8
73−46
season record
47−73
41−18
home record
21−38
32−28
away record
26−35
W8
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
2−8
8.7
hits / game
8.3
1.07
home runs / game
1.18
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.60
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

TB · ATH · 137 days
Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
Aug 11at ATHTB 12 − 4
Aug 10at ATHTB 10 − 6
Aug 13, 2025at ATHTB 8 − 2
Aug 12, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at ATHTB 7 − 4
Jul 2, 2025at TBTB 6 − 5
Jul 1, 2025at TBATH 4 − 3
Jun 30, 2025at TBATH 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2024at ATHATH 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2024at ATHTB 4 − 2

TB · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Aug 11at ATH12 − 4W
Aug 10at ATH10 − 6W
Aug 9at SEA4 − 1W
Aug 8at SEA3 − 2W
Aug 7at SEA2 − 1W
Aug 5at COL4 − 0W
Aug 4at COL9 − 7W
Aug 3at COL13 − 9W
Aug 2vs CHW1 − 9L
Aug 1vs CHW1 − 0W

ATH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Aug 11vs TB4 − 12L
Aug 10vs TB6 − 10L
Aug 9at BOS4 − 3W
Aug 8at BOS7 − 3W
Aug 7at BOS1 − 13L
Aug 6at CIN5 − 6L
Aug 5at CIN2 − 3L
Aug 4at CIN4 − 5L
Aug 2vs DET0 − 11L
Aug 1vs DET6 − 8L