bayesRatings

Nationals at Marlins

MLB · Sunday, Aug 23 · 12:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final WSH 2 – MIA 6
← MLB / Aug 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000101000250
MIA10002201681
Team box
WSH·MIA
5
hits
8
0
home runs
0
3
walks
6
7
strikeouts
8
152
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-4002
Joe MackMIA1-2002
Dylan CrewsWSH2-4001
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-3001
Jorbit VivasWSH1-4001
Griffin ConineMIA1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jackson Kent (L)WSH4.24335
Janson JunkMIA4.22102
Michael Petersen (W)MIA0.10011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +4
WSH +4
123456789
largest lead: MIA 4 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, MIA 54% · Updated Aug 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.6 – 4.5 WSH
Expected total
9.1
NationalsThe matchupMarlins
+119Our fair odds−119
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.10Power rating+0.01
5.2Runs / game4.4
5.1Allowed / game4.2
8.5Hits / game8.3
1.40Home runs / game1.02
3.5Walks drawn / game3.4
61−70Season record66−64
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · MIA chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11946%+14041.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−11954%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more36%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more27%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHJackson Kent SP · last 2 starts: 7.2 IP, 9.39 ERA, 9 Kstarted
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·MIA
Aug 22 at MIA
last game
Aug 22 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 130+ games
WSH·MIA
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
5.2
runs / game
4.4
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.2
61−70
season record
66−64
27−36
home record
40−25
34−34
away record
26−39
L3
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
8.3
1.40
home runs / game
1.02
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.69
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

WSH · MIA · 148 days
Washington NationalsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 9−1
Aug 22at MIAMIA 4 − 2
Aug 21at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Jun 3at WSHMIA 4 − 1
Jun 2at WSHMIA 7 − 3
Jun 1at WSHMIA 7 − 3
May 10at MIAMIA 5 − 2
May 9at MIAMIA 8 − 7
May 8at MIAWSH 3 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 0
Sep 10, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 3

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Aug 22at MIA2 − 4L
Aug 21at MIA2 − 3L
Aug 20at TEX0 − 2L
Aug 19at TEX6 − 0W
Aug 18at TEX0 − 5L
Aug 16at NYM3 − 4L
Aug 15at NYM4 − 5L
Aug 14at NYM1 − 4L
Aug 13vs CHC7 − 0W
Aug 12vs CHC6 − 12L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 22vs WSH4 − 2W
Aug 21vs WSH3 − 2W
Aug 19at PHI1 − 4L
Aug 18at PHI4 − 6L
Aug 17at PHI5 − 6L
Aug 16at CIN7 − 1W
Aug 15at CIN8 − 4W
Aug 14at CIN0 − 1L
Aug 13vs PIT1 − 13L
Aug 12vs PIT8 − 2W