bayesRatings

Marlins at Reds

MLB · Sunday, Aug 16 · 12:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final MIA 7 – CIN 1
← MLB / Aug 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000000025780
CIN000000010143
Team box
MIA·CIN
8
hits
4
2
home runs
1
7
walks
5
8
strikeouts
8
139
pitches thrown
185
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Javier SanojaMIA1-4113
Agustin RamirezMIA2-5202
Tyler StephensonCIN1-1111
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-3211
Jose TrevinoCIN2-3000
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eury PerezMIA6.02055
Josh Ekness (W)MIA1.00001
Nick LodoloCIN5.03022
Tejay Antone (L)CIN0.22120

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +6
MIA +6
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · MIA 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Aug 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.4 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.6
MarlinsThe matchupReds
+100Our fair odds−100
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.00Power rating−0.06
4.4Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.8
8.3Hits / game7.5
1.02Home runs / game1.31
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
63−61Season record59−63
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · CIN chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10050%−12655.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10050%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins−0.2our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 12%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byCIN wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more38%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more28%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 22 Kstarted
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·CIN
Aug 15 at CIN
last game
Aug 15 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 122+ games
MIA·CIN
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.8
63−61
season record
59−63
38−25
home record
30−32
25−36
away record
29−31
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
7.5
1.02
home runs / game
1.31
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.65
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

MIA · CIN · 141 days
Miami MarlinsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Aug 15at CINMIA 8 − 4
Aug 14at CINCIN 1 − 0
Apr 9at MIAMIA 8 − 1
Apr 8at MIAMIA 7 − 4
Apr 7at MIACIN 6 − 3
Apr 6at MIACIN 2 − 0
Jul 10, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 0
Jul 9, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at CINMIA 12 − 2
Jul 7, 2025at CINMIA 5 − 1

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 15at CIN8 − 4W
Aug 14at CIN0 − 1L
Aug 13vs PIT1 − 13L
Aug 12vs PIT8 − 2W
Aug 11vs PIT2 − 0W
Aug 9vs LAA12 − 3W
Aug 8vs LAA7 − 0W
Aug 7vs LAA3 − 4L
Aug 6at ATL3 − 11L
Aug 5at ATL1 − 4L

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 15vs MIA4 − 8L
Aug 14vs MIA1 − 0W
Aug 13at CHW9 − 8W
Aug 12at CHW0 − 5L
Aug 11at CHW5 − 4W
Aug 9at WSH1 − 7L
Aug 8at WSH2 − 8L
Aug 7at WSH3 − 5L
Aug 6vs ATH6 − 5W
Aug 5vs ATH3 − 2W