bayesRatings

Pirates at Marlins

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 11 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final PIT 0 – MIA 2
← MLB / Aug 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000000000042
MIA00101000250
Team box
PIT·MIA
4
hits
5
0
home runs
1
2
walks
2
10
strikeouts
9
105
pitches thrown
132
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Esteury RuizMIA1-2211
Griffin ConineMIA1-3000
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-4000
Otto LopezMIA1-4000
Javier SanojaMIA1-3000
Henry DavisPIT1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul Skenes (L)PIT5.05114
Eury Perez (W)MIA7.03027
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 2 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 48%, MIA 52% · Updated Aug 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.5 – 4.5 PIT
Expected total
8.9
PiratesThe matchupMarlins
+108Our fair odds−108
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating−0.00
5.0Runs / game4.4
4.8Allowed / game4.3
8.9Hits / game8.3
1.21Home runs / game1.01
3.6Walks drawn / game3.4
58−62Season record60−59
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · MIA chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10848%−11252.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10852%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh PiratesPKour margin————
MIAMiami MarlinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 12%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more36%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more26%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 8.16 ERA, 24 Kstarted
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·MIA
Aug 9 vs NYM
last game
Aug 9 vs LAA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 119+ games
PIT·MIA
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
5.0
runs / game
4.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
58−62
season record
60−59
30−30
home record
36−24
28−32
away record
24−35
L1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.9
hits / game
8.3
1.21
home runs / game
1.01
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.60
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

PIT · MIA · 136 days
Pittsburgh PiratesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Jun 14at PITMIA 4 − 2
Jun 13at PITPIT 3 − 2
Jun 12at PITMIA 8 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at PITMIA 3 − 2
Jun 9, 2025at PITPIT 10 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Mar 28, 2025at MIAPIT 4 − 3
Mar 27, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 9vs NYM1 − 11L
Aug 8vs NYM9 − 0W
Aug 7vs NYM4 − 6L
Aug 6at MIL2 − 5L
Aug 5at MIL2 − 4L
Aug 4at MIL2 − 4L
Aug 3at MIL4 − 3W
Aug 2at CIN2 − 10L
Aug 1at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 31at CIN7 − 8L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 9vs LAA12 − 3W
Aug 8vs LAA7 − 0W
Aug 7vs LAA3 − 4L
Aug 6at ATL3 − 11L
Aug 5at ATL1 − 4L
Aug 4at ATL2 − 4L
Aug 2at NYM2 − 0W
Aug 1at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 31at NYM5 − 2W
Jul 30at NYM2 − 4L