bayesRatings

Reds at White Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 12 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final CIN 0 – CHW 5
← MLB / Aug 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000000000020
CHW001002025110
Team box
CIN·CHW
2
hits
11
0
home runs
2
3
walks
3
13
strikeouts
6
147
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drew RomoCHW2-4112
Chase MeidrothCHW2-4112
Sam AntonacciCHW3-5000
Sal StewartCIN2-4000
Brenton DoyleCHW1-4000
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Rhett Lowder (L)CIN5.17214
Luis Castillo (W)CHW7.010210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +5
CIN +5
123456789
largest lead: CHW 5 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 47%, CHW 53% · Updated Aug 12

Expected margin
CHW by 0.5
Expected score
CHW 4.8 – 4.3 CIN
Expected total
9.1
RedsThe matchupWhite Sox
+111Our fair odds−111
4.3Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating−0.03
4.1Runs / game4.8
4.7Allowed / game4.4
7.6Hits / game7.9
1.31Home runs / game1.31
3.6Walks drawn / game3.4
57−61Season record61−57
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · CHW chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11147%+12444.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−11153%−14859.7%———
SpreadCHW by 0.5
CINCincinnati Reds+0.5our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago White Sox by 0.5 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more31%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CHWLuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 7.31 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·CHW
Aug 11 at CHW
last game
Aug 11 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 118+ games
CIN·CHW
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.1
runs / game
4.8
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.4
57−61
season record
61−57
29−31
home record
36−23
28−30
away record
25−34
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.6
hits / game
7.9
1.31
home runs / game
1.31
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.53
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

CIN · CHW · 137 days
Cincinnati RedsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
Aug 11at CHWCIN 5 − 4
May 15, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 1
May 14, 2025at CINCHW 4 − 2
May 13, 2025at CINCHW 5 − 1
Apr 14, 2024at CHWCIN 11 − 4
Apr 13, 2024at CHWCIN 5 − 0
Apr 12, 2024at CHWCIN 11 − 1
May 7, 2023at CINCHW 17 − 4
May 6, 2023at CINCIN 5 − 3
May 5, 2023at CINCHW 5 − 4

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 11at CHW5 − 4W
Aug 9at WSH1 − 7L
Aug 8at WSH2 − 8L
Aug 7at WSH3 − 5L
Aug 6vs ATH6 − 5W
Aug 5vs ATH3 − 2W
Aug 4vs ATH5 − 4W
Aug 2vs PIT10 − 2W
Aug 1vs PIT1 − 4L
Jul 31vs PIT8 − 7W

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 11vs CIN4 − 5L
Aug 9vs CLE5 − 3W
Aug 8vs CLE6 − 3W
Aug 7vs CLE2 − 8L
Aug 6at BOS11 − 12L
Aug 5at BOS0 − 4L
Aug 4at BOS2 − 14L
Aug 2at TB9 − 1W
Aug 1at TB0 − 1L
Jul 31at TB6 − 1W