bayesRatings

Pirates at Marlins

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 12 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final PIT 2 – MIA 8
← MLB / Aug 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT010100000260
MIA01410200891
Team box
PIT·MIA
6
hits
9
0
home runs
2
2
walks
8
5
strikeouts
5
169
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Griffin ConineMIA2-2311
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-3212
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-4002
Agustin RamirezMIA2-5101
Joe MackMIA1-2001
Nick GonzalesPIT2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carmen Mlodzinski (L)PIT2.15431
Janson Junk (W)MIA6.04112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +6
PIT +6
123456789
largest lead: MIA 6 · PIT 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 48%, MIA 52% · Updated Aug 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.4 – 4.4 PIT
Expected total
8.8
PiratesThe matchupMarlins
+110Our fair odds−110
4.4Expected runs4.4
−0.02Power rating+0.00
5.0Runs / game4.4
4.8Allowed / game4.2
8.8Hits / game8.3
1.20Home runs / game1.01
3.6Walks drawn / game3.3
58−63Season record61−59
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · MIA chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+11048%−10350.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−11052%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh PiratesPKour margin————
MIAMiami MarlinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more35%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more26%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITCarmen Mlodzinski RP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.15 ERA, 4 Kstarted
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.13 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·MIA
Aug 11 at MIA
last game
Aug 11 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 120+ games
PIT·MIA
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
5.0
runs / game
4.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.2
58−63
season record
61−59
30−30
home record
37−24
28−33
away record
24−35
L2
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.3
1.20
home runs / game
1.01
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.61
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

PIT · MIA · 137 days
Pittsburgh PiratesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Aug 11at MIAMIA 2 − 0
Jun 14at PITMIA 4 − 2
Jun 13at PITPIT 3 − 2
Jun 12at PITMIA 8 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at PITMIA 3 − 2
Jun 9, 2025at PITPIT 10 − 3
Mar 30, 2025at MIAMIA 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 4
Mar 28, 2025at MIAPIT 4 − 3

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Aug 11at MIA0 − 2L
Aug 9vs NYM1 − 11L
Aug 8vs NYM9 − 0W
Aug 7vs NYM4 − 6L
Aug 6at MIL2 − 5L
Aug 5at MIL2 − 4L
Aug 4at MIL2 − 4L
Aug 3at MIL4 − 3W
Aug 2at CIN2 − 10L
Aug 1at CIN4 − 1W

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Aug 11vs PIT2 − 0W
Aug 9vs LAA12 − 3W
Aug 8vs LAA7 − 0W
Aug 7vs LAA3 − 4L
Aug 6at ATL3 − 11L
Aug 5at ATL1 − 4L
Aug 4at ATL2 − 4L
Aug 2at NYM2 − 0W
Aug 1at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 31at NYM5 − 2W