bayesRatings

Nationals at Marlins

MLB · Friday, Aug 21 · 6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final WSH 2 – MIA 3
← MLB / Aug 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000001001291
MIA000000021360
Team box
WSH·MIA
9
hits
6
1
home runs
0
3
walks
7
6
strikeouts
8
137
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Keibert RuizWSH2-4111
Javier SanojaMIA2-3102
Daylen LileWSH3-5001
Otto LopezMIA1-4001
Esteury RuizMIA1-2000
Jakob MarseeMIA1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brad LordWSH2.20011
Clayton Beeter (L)WSH0.23130
Ryan GustoMIA4.05012
Pete Fairbanks (W)MIA1.01112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 1 · WSH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 47%, MIA 53% · Updated Aug 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.6 – 4.6 WSH
Expected total
9.2
NationalsThe matchupMarlins
+115Our fair odds−115
4.6Expected runs4.6
−0.08Power rating−0.00
5.2Runs / game4.4
5.1Allowed / game4.3
8.5Hits / game8.3
1.41Home runs / game1.02
3.5Walks drawn / game3.4
61−68Season record64−64
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · MIA chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11547%+12943.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−11553%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington NationalsPKour margin————
MIAMiami MarlinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more36%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more26%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHBrad Lord RP · last 3 starts: 5.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 6 Kstarted
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·MIA
Aug 20 at TEX
last game
Aug 19 at PHI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 128+ games
WSH·MIA
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
5.2
runs / game
4.4
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
61−68
season record
64−64
27−36
home record
38−25
34−32
away record
26−39
L1
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
8.3
1.41
home runs / game
1.02
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.69
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

WSH · MIA · 146 days
Washington NationalsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 7−3
Jun 3at WSHMIA 4 − 1
Jun 2at WSHMIA 7 − 3
Jun 1at WSHMIA 7 − 3
May 10at MIAMIA 5 − 2
May 9at MIAMIA 8 − 7
May 8at MIAWSH 3 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 0
Sep 10, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at MIAWSH 7 − 5
Sep 8, 2025at MIAWSH 15 − 7

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 20at TEX0 − 2L
Aug 19at TEX6 − 0W
Aug 18at TEX0 − 5L
Aug 16at NYM3 − 4L
Aug 15at NYM4 − 5L
Aug 14at NYM1 − 4L
Aug 13vs CHC7 − 0W
Aug 12vs CHC6 − 12L
Aug 11vs CHC6 − 8L
Aug 9vs CIN7 − 1W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Aug 19at PHI1 − 4L
Aug 18at PHI4 − 6L
Aug 17at PHI5 − 6L
Aug 16at CIN7 − 1W
Aug 15at CIN8 − 4W
Aug 14at CIN0 − 1L
Aug 13vs PIT1 − 13L
Aug 12vs PIT8 − 2W
Aug 11vs PIT2 − 0W
Aug 9vs LAA12 − 3W