bayesRatings

Guardians at Rockies

MLB · Sunday, Aug 23 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final CLE 7 – COL 2
← MLB / Aug 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE3201000107120
COL020000000270
Team box
CLE·COL
12
hits
7
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
5
strikeouts
9
156
pitches thrown
204
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase DeLauterCLE3-4202
Jo AdellCLE2-5002
Angel MartinezCLE2-3101
Austin HedgesCLE2-4000
Nathaniel LoweCLE1-5101
Steven KwanCLE2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster Griffin (W)CLE5.05234
Tomoyuki Sugano (L)COL3.09512

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +5
CLE +5
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · CLE 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 59%, COL 41% · Updated Aug 23

Expected margin
CLE by 1.3
Expected score
CLE 6.2 – 4.9 COL
Expected total
11.1
GuardiansThe matchupRockies
−146Our fair odds+146
6.2Expected runs4.9
−0.01Power rating−0.47
4.0Runs / game4.8
4.1Allowed / game5.8
7.8Hits / game8.6
0.95Home runs / game1.12
3.6Walks drawn / game3.1
64−66Season record50−79
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · COL chance
Our model fair59.4%40.6%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−14659%−16862.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+14641%+14041.7%———
SpreadCLE by 1.3
CLECleveland Guardians−1.3our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.1
Over11.1our total————
Under11.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 1.3 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 17 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 16 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 15 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byCOL wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more48%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 15 Kstarted
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·COL
Aug 22 at COL
last game
Aug 22 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 129+ games
CLE·COL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.47
4.0
runs / game
4.8
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.8
64−66
season record
50−79
31−34
home record
27−37
33−32
away record
23−42
W3
streak
L5
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.6
0.95
home runs / game
1.12
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.52
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

CLE · COL · 148 days
Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Aug 22at COLCLE 4 − 3
Aug 21at COLCLE 9 − 1
Jul 30, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 4
Jul 28, 2025at CLECOL 8 − 6
May 29, 2024at COLCOL 7 − 4
May 28, 2024at COLCLE 13 − 7
May 27, 2024at COLCOL 8 − 6
Apr 26, 2023at CLECLE 4 − 1
Apr 25, 2023at CLECOL 5 − 1

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Aug 22at COL4 − 3W
Aug 21at COL9 − 1W
Aug 20vs SF5 − 2W
Aug 19vs SF0 − 1L
Aug 18vs SF8 − 1W
Aug 16vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 15vs SD6 − 1W
Aug 14vs SD5 − 7L
Aug 13at DET0 − 3L
Aug 12at DET6 − 4W

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Aug 22vs CLE3 − 4L
Aug 21vs CLE1 − 9L
Aug 19vs LAD4 − 6L
Aug 18vs LAD6 − 7L
Aug 17vs LAD5 − 11L
Aug 16at SF13 − 7W
Aug 15at SF1 − 7L
Aug 14at SF5 − 2W
Aug 12at ARI6 − 4W
Aug 11at ARI3 − 2W