bayesRatings

Dodgers at Rockies

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 19 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final LAD 6 – COL 4
← MLB / Aug 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
LAD01030000026110
COL0002002000490
Team box
LAD·COL
11
hits
9
2
home runs
1
2
walks
3
12
strikeouts
15
174
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mickey MoniakCOL3-5112
Enrique HernandezLAD2-4113
Mookie BettsLAD3-5212
Adael AmadorCOL1-4002
Connor NorbyCOL2-4100
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Roki SasakiLAD5.07216
Kyle Hurt (W)LAD1.01002
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00001
Kyle FreelandCOL3.26415
Jimmy Herget (L)COL0.22100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
LAD +4
12345678910
largest lead: COL 0 · LAD 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 65%, COL 35% · Updated Aug 19

Expected margin
LAD by 2.4
Expected score
LAD 7.0 – 4.6 COL
Expected total
11.7
DodgersThe matchupRockies
−188Our fair odds+188
7.0Expected runs4.6
+0.28Power rating−0.43
5.0Runs / game4.8
3.9Allowed / game5.8
8.7Hits / game8.6
1.29Home runs / game1.12
3.7Walks drawn / game3.1
76−51Season record50−76
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · COL chance
Our model fair65.3%34.7%
Kalshi67.6%36.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−18865%−20867.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+18835%+17336.6%———
SpreadLAD by 2.4
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2.4our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.7
Over11.7our total————
Under11.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.4 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 19 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCOL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more56%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more46%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 2%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%30 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.561%
Total over 11.546%
Total over 13.533%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 14 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 21.1 IP, 1.27 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·COL
Aug 18 at COL
last game
Aug 18 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 126+ games
LAD·COL
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.43
5.0
runs / game
4.8
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.8
76−51
season record
50−76
37−26
home record
27−34
39−25
away record
23−42
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
8.6
1.29
home runs / game
1.12
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.41
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

LAD · COL · 144 days
Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
Aug 18at COLLAD 7 − 6
Aug 17at COLLAD 11 − 5
Jul 8at LADLAD 4 − 3
Jul 7at LADCOL 4 − 3
Jul 6at LADLAD 8 − 7
May 27at LADLAD 4 − 1
May 26at LADLAD 15 − 6
May 25at LADLAD 5 − 3
Apr 20at COLLAD 12 − 3
Apr 19at COLCOL 9 − 6

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 18at COL7 − 6W
Aug 17at COL11 − 5W
Aug 16vs MIL2 − 6L
Aug 15vs MIL1 − 4L
Aug 14vs MIL3 − 1W
Aug 13vs MIL4 − 5L
Aug 12vs KC4 − 2W
Aug 11vs KC5 − 4W
Aug 10vs KC6 − 5W
Aug 9at ARI2 − 4L

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 18vs LAD6 − 7L
Aug 17vs LAD5 − 11L
Aug 16at SF13 − 7W
Aug 15at SF1 − 7L
Aug 14at SF5 − 2W
Aug 12at ARI6 − 4W
Aug 11at ARI3 − 2W
Aug 10at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 9at STL4 − 7L
Aug 8at STL8 − 6W