bayesRatings

Brewers at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Aug 16 · 3:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final MIL 6 – LAD 2
← MLB / Aug 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL0100102026110
LAD000100001262
Team box
MIL·LAD
11
hits
6
0
home runs
2
4
walks
1
12
strikeouts
7
121
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL4-4102
Max MuncyLAD1-3111
Andy PagesLAD1-3111
Andrew VaughnMIL2-4001
Jackson ChourioMIL3-5300
Mookie BettsLAD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Henderson (W)MIL7.03116
Tarik Skubal (L)LAD6.07127

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +5
MIL +5
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · MIL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 49%, LAD 51% · Updated Aug 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 4.4 – 4.3 LAD
Expected total
8.7
BrewersThe matchupDodgers
+104Our fair odds−104
4.4Expected runs4.3
+0.30Power rating+0.27
4.9Runs / game5.0
3.8Allowed / game3.8
8.4Hits / game8.7
0.91Home runs / game1.27
4.2Walks drawn / game3.7
76−48Season record74−50
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers+10449%+15938.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−10451%−19165.6%———
Spreadabout even
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byLAD wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more37%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more27%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 22 Kstarted
LADTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·LAD
Aug 15 at LAD
last game
Aug 15 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 124+ games
MIL·LAD
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.9
runs / game
5.0
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.8
76−48
season record
74−50
41−22
home record
37−25
35−26
away record
37−25
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.7
0.91
home runs / game
1.27
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.45
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

MIL · LAD · 141 days
Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 7−3
Aug 15at LADMIL 4 − 1
Aug 14at LADLAD 3 − 1
Aug 13at LADMIL 5 − 4
May 24at MILLAD 5 − 1
May 23at MILLAD 11 − 3
May 22at MILMIL 5 − 1
Oct 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 16, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1post
Oct 14, 2025at MILLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 13, 2025at MILLAD 2 − 1post

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 15at LAD4 − 1W
Aug 14at LAD1 − 3L
Aug 13at LAD5 − 4W
Aug 12at SD3 − 4L
Aug 11at SD2 − 11L
Aug 10at SD2 − 3L
Aug 9vs MIN4 − 3W
Aug 8vs MIN4 − 3W
Aug 7vs MIN6 − 8L
Aug 6vs PIT5 − 2W

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 15vs MIL1 − 4L
Aug 14vs MIL3 − 1W
Aug 13vs MIL4 − 5L
Aug 12vs KC4 − 2W
Aug 11vs KC5 − 4W
Aug 10vs KC6 − 5W
Aug 9at ARI2 − 4L
Aug 8at ARI2 − 1W
Aug 7at ARI3 − 4L
Aug 5at CHC6 − 7L