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Twins at Brewers

MLB · Friday, Aug 7 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final MIN 8 – MIL 6
← MLB / Aug 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN0022220008131
MIL130020000690
Team box
MIN·MIL
13
hits
9
2
home runs
1
4
walks
5
7
strikeouts
9
160
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh BellMIN4-5213
Brice TurangMIL2-4102
Jackson ChourioMIL1-4111
Kaelen CulpepperMIN1-4111
Royce LewisMIN2-5201
David HamiltonMIL2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zebby Matthews (W)MIN5.07324
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.00001
Shane DrohanMIL5.09644
Antonio Senzatela (L)MIL1.03201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: MIL 4 · MIN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 38%, MIL 62% · Updated Aug 7

Expected margin
MIL by 1.4
Expected score
MIL 5.1 – 3.7 MIN
Expected total
8.8
TwinsThe matchupBrewers
+166Our fair odds−166
3.7Expected runs5.1
−0.10Power rating+0.35
4.6Runs / game5.0
4.9Allowed / game3.7
8.2Hits / game8.5
1.18Home runs / game0.92
3.3Walks drawn / game4.1
57−59Season record72−43
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · MIL chance
Our model fair37.7%62.3%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+16638%+15239.6%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−16662%−18364.6%———
SpreadMIL by 1.4
MINMinnesota Twins+1.4our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.4 expected
Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 8.36 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MILShane Drohan SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·MIL
Aug 6 at KC
last game
Aug 6 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 115+ games
MIN·MIL
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
4.6
runs / game
5.0
4.9
runs allowed / game
3.7
57−59
season record
72−43
30−27
home record
39−21
27−32
away record
33−22
W1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
8.5
1.18
home runs / game
0.92
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.49
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

MIN · MIL · 132 days
Minnesota TwinsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
May 17at MINMIN 5 − 4
May 16at MINMIL 2 − 1
May 15at MINMIL 3 − 2
Jun 22, 2025at MINMIL 9 − 8
Jun 21, 2025at MINMIL 9 − 0
Jun 20, 2025at MINMIL 17 − 6
May 18, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 2
May 17, 2025at MILMIN 7 − 0
May 16, 2025at MILMIN 3 − 0
Jul 21, 2024at MINMIL 8 − 7

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 6at KC4 − 3W
Aug 5at KC1 − 2L
Aug 4at KC2 − 8L
Aug 2at SEA6 − 7L
Aug 1at SEA3 − 4L
Jul 31at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 30vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 29vs KC0 − 4L
Jul 28vs KC3 − 2W
Jul 26vs ATH11 − 8W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Aug 6vs PIT5 − 2W
Aug 5vs PIT4 − 2W
Aug 4vs PIT4 − 2W
Aug 3vs PIT3 − 4L
Aug 2at LAA0 − 3L
Aug 1at LAA3 − 1W
Jul 31at LAA6 − 2W
Jul 29at SF3 − 16L
Jul 28at SF8 − 2W
Jul 27at SF0 − 3L