bayesRatings

Royals at Dodgers

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 12 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final KC 2 – LAD 4
← MLB / Aug 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC011000000260
LAD01201000482
Team box
KC·LAD
6
hits
8
0
home runs
3
2
walks
4
8
strikeouts
6
123
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-4112
Mookie BettsLAD2-3111
Hunter FeducciaLAD1-3111
Salvador PerezKC1-2001
Josh RojasKC1-4001
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Daniel Lynch IV (L)KC2.13303
Eric Lauer (W)LAD6.14126
Landon Knack (S)LAD2.22002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 2 · KC 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 37%, LAD 63% · Updated Aug 12

Expected margin
LAD by 1.6
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.8 KC
Expected total
9.1
RoyalsThe matchupDodgers
+168Our fair odds−168
3.8Expected runs5.3
−0.17Power rating+0.28
4.1Runs / game5.0
5.1Allowed / game3.9
8.2Hits / game8.8
1.01Home runs / game1.27
3.1Walks drawn / game3.7
49−72Season record72−48
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · LAD chance
Our model fair37.3%62.7%
Kalshi34.5%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+16837%+18934.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−16863%−22869.5%———
SpreadLAD by 1.6
KCKansas City Royals+1.6our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.6 expected
Kansas City Royals by 16 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 15 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%
← KC wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more50%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more39%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCDaniel Lynch IV RP · last 3 starts: 6.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 8 Kstarted
LADEric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·LAD
Aug 11 at LAD
last game
Aug 11 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 120+ games
KC·LAD
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
4.1
runs / game
5.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
3.9
49−72
season record
72−48
29−30
home record
35−23
20−42
away record
37−25
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
3−7
8.2
hits / game
8.8
1.01
home runs / game
1.27
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.46
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

KC · LAD · 137 days
Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Aug 11at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 10at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 29, 2025at KCLAD 5 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at KCKC 9 − 5
Jun 27, 2025at KCLAD 5 − 4
Jun 16, 2024at LADLAD 3 − 0
Jun 15, 2024at LADKC 7 − 2
Jun 14, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 3
Jul 2, 2023at KCKC 9 − 1
Jul 1, 2023at KCKC 6 − 4

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Aug 11at LAD4 − 5L
Aug 10at LAD5 − 6L
Aug 9vs CHC2 − 10L
Aug 8vs CHC6 − 3W
Aug 7vs CHC4 − 6L
Aug 6vs MIN3 − 4L
Aug 5vs MIN2 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIN8 − 2W
Aug 2at COL1 − 8L
Aug 1at COL6 − 12L

LAD · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Aug 11vs KC5 − 4W
Aug 10vs KC6 − 5W
Aug 9at ARI2 − 4L
Aug 8at ARI2 − 1W
Aug 7at ARI3 − 4L
Aug 5at CHC6 − 7L
Aug 4at CHC1 − 5L
Aug 3at CHC5 − 10L
Aug 2vs BOS4 − 8L
Aug 1vs BOS2 − 3L