bayesRatings

Royals at Dodgers

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 11 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final KC 4 – LAD 5
← MLB / Aug 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
KC0001000300460
LAD0100002101591
Team box
KC·LAD
6
hits
9
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
14
strikeouts
8
138
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mookie BettsLAD3-4212
Salvador PerezKC1-4002
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4101
Max MuncyLAD2-4001
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-5200
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-1001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael WachaKC6.27305
Lucas Erceg (L)KC0.11020
Blake SnellLAD6.031110
Seth Halvorsen (W)LAD1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
KC +3
12345678910
largest lead: LAD 2 · KC 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 38%, LAD 62% · Updated Aug 11

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.8 KC
Expected total
9.1
RoyalsThe matchupDodgers
+165Our fair odds−165
3.8Expected runs5.3
−0.17Power rating+0.27
4.1Runs / game5.0
5.1Allowed / game3.8
8.2Hits / game8.8
1.02Home runs / game1.27
3.1Walks drawn / game3.7
49−71Season record71−48
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · LAD chance
Our model fair37.7%62.3%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+16538%+22930.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−16562%−27673.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
KCKansas City Royals+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
Kansas City Royals by 15 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← KC wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LADBlake Snell SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 8.59 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·LAD
Aug 10 at LAD
last game
Aug 10 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 119+ games
KC·LAD
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.1
runs / game
5.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
3.8
49−71
season record
71−48
29−30
home record
34−23
20−41
away record
37−25
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
2−8
8.2
hits / game
8.8
1.02
home runs / game
1.27
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.47
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

KC · LAD · 136 days
Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Aug 10at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 29, 2025at KCLAD 5 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at KCKC 9 − 5
Jun 27, 2025at KCLAD 5 − 4
Jun 16, 2024at LADLAD 3 − 0
Jun 15, 2024at LADKC 7 − 2
Jun 14, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 3
Jul 2, 2023at KCKC 9 − 1
Jul 1, 2023at KCKC 6 − 4
Jun 30, 2023at KCLAD 9 − 3

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Aug 10at LAD5 − 6L
Aug 9vs CHC2 − 10L
Aug 8vs CHC6 − 3W
Aug 7vs CHC4 − 6L
Aug 6vs MIN3 − 4L
Aug 5vs MIN2 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIN8 − 2W
Aug 2at COL1 − 8L
Aug 1at COL6 − 12L
Jul 31at COL1 − 3L

LAD · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Aug 10vs KC6 − 5W
Aug 9at ARI2 − 4L
Aug 8at ARI2 − 1W
Aug 7at ARI3 − 4L
Aug 5at CHC6 − 7L
Aug 4at CHC1 − 5L
Aug 3at CHC5 − 10L
Aug 2vs BOS4 − 8L
Aug 1vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 31vs BOS4 − 9L