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Twins at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, Aug 8 · 6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final MIN 3 – MIL 4
← MLB / Aug 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN030000000370
MIL10020001480
Team box
MIN·MIL
7
hits
8
0
home runs
0
3
walks
2
6
strikeouts
14
148
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL3-4102
Royce LewisMIN2-4002
Andrew VaughnMIL2-4101
William ContrerasMIL1-3001
Ryan JeffersMIN1-4001
Luke KeaschallMIN2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taj BradleyMIN5.05327
Jeff Hoffman (L)MIN1.02101
Robert GasserMIL4.27323
Aaron Ashby (W)MIL1.00002
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · MIN 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 38%, MIL 62% · Updated Aug 8

Expected margin
MIL by 1.4
Expected score
MIL 5.2 – 3.8 MIN
Expected total
8.9
TwinsThe matchupBrewers
+161Our fair odds−161
3.8Expected runs5.2
−0.08Power rating+0.33
4.7Runs / game5.0
5.0Allowed / game3.8
8.2Hits / game8.5
1.19Home runs / game0.92
3.3Walks drawn / game4.1
58−59Season record72−44
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · MIL chance
Our model fair38.4%61.6%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+16138%+12444.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−16162%−14859.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.4
MINMinnesota Twins+1.4our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.4 expected
Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·MIL
Aug 7 at MIL
last game
Aug 7 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 116+ games
MIN·MIL
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
4.7
runs / game
5.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
3.8
58−59
season record
72−44
30−27
home record
39−22
28−32
away record
33−22
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
8.5
1.19
home runs / game
0.92
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.50
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

MIN · MIL · 133 days
Minnesota TwinsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Aug 7at MILMIN 8 − 6
May 17at MINMIN 5 − 4
May 16at MINMIL 2 − 1
May 15at MINMIL 3 − 2
Jun 22, 2025at MINMIL 9 − 8
Jun 21, 2025at MINMIL 9 − 0
Jun 20, 2025at MINMIL 17 − 6
May 18, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 2
May 17, 2025at MILMIN 7 − 0
May 16, 2025at MILMIN 3 − 0

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 7at MIL8 − 6W
Aug 6at KC4 − 3W
Aug 5at KC1 − 2L
Aug 4at KC2 − 8L
Aug 2at SEA6 − 7L
Aug 1at SEA3 − 4L
Jul 31at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 30vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 29vs KC0 − 4L
Jul 28vs KC3 − 2W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 7vs MIN6 − 8L
Aug 6vs PIT5 − 2W
Aug 5vs PIT4 − 2W
Aug 4vs PIT4 − 2W
Aug 3vs PIT3 − 4L
Aug 2at LAA0 − 3L
Aug 1at LAA3 − 1W
Jul 31at LAA6 − 2W
Jul 29at SF3 − 16L
Jul 28at SF8 − 2W