bayesRatings

Dodgers at Rockies

MLB · Monday, Aug 17 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final LAD 11 – COL 5
← MLB / Aug 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD01402301011141
COL001000103562
Team box
LAD·COL
14
hits
6
3
home runs
0
3
walks
3
4
strikeouts
6
129
pitches thrown
177
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD4-5423
Max MuncyLAD2-4213
Andy PagesLAD3-4202
Freddie FreemanLAD3-5201
Mookie BettsLAD1-5002
Brett SullivanCOL1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Blake Snell (W)LAD6.02135
Tomoyuki Sugano (L)COL5.07613

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +9
LAD +9
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · LAD 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 65%, COL 35% · Updated Aug 17

Expected margin
LAD by 2.4
Expected score
LAD 7.0 – 4.6 COL
Expected total
11.6
DodgersThe matchupRockies
−182Our fair odds+182
7.0Expected runs4.6
+0.26Power rating−0.40
4.9Runs / game4.8
3.8Allowed / game5.7
8.7Hits / game8.6
1.28Home runs / game1.13
3.7Walks drawn / game3.1
74−51Season record50−74
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · COL chance
Our model fair64.6%35.4%
Kalshi74.4%29.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−18265%−29074.4%———
COLColorado Rockies+18235%+24029.4%———
SpreadLAD by 2.4
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2.4our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.6
Over11.6our total————
Under11.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.4 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 19 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 9%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 19 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCOL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more56%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more47%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 2%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.560%
Total over 11.545%
Total over 13.532%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADBlake Snell SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 22 Kstarted
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·COL
Aug 16 vs MIL
last game
Aug 16 at SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 124+ games
LAD·COL
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.40
4.9
runs / game
4.8
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.7
74−51
season record
50−74
37−26
home record
27−32
37−25
away record
23−42
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
8.6
1.28
home runs / game
1.13
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.41
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

LAD · COL · 142 days
Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Jul 8at LADLAD 4 − 3
Jul 7at LADCOL 4 − 3
Jul 6at LADLAD 8 − 7
May 27at LADLAD 4 − 1
May 26at LADLAD 15 − 6
May 25at LADLAD 5 − 3
Apr 20at COLLAD 12 − 3
Apr 19at COLCOL 9 − 6
Apr 18at COLCOL 4 − 3
Apr 17at COLLAD 7 − 1

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 16vs MIL2 − 6L
Aug 15vs MIL1 − 4L
Aug 14vs MIL3 − 1W
Aug 13vs MIL4 − 5L
Aug 12vs KC4 − 2W
Aug 11vs KC5 − 4W
Aug 10vs KC6 − 5W
Aug 9at ARI2 − 4L
Aug 8at ARI2 − 1W
Aug 7at ARI3 − 4L

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 16at SF13 − 7W
Aug 15at SF1 − 7L
Aug 14at SF5 − 2W
Aug 12at ARI6 − 4W
Aug 11at ARI3 − 2W
Aug 10at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 9at STL4 − 7L
Aug 8at STL8 − 6W
Aug 7at STL2 − 3L
Aug 5vs TB0 − 4L