bayesRatings

Guardians at Rockies

MLB · Saturday, Aug 22 · 7:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final CLE 4 – COL 3
← MLB / Aug 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000301000470
COL000110001370
Team box
CLE·COL
7
hits
7
1
home runs
2
3
walks
1
4
strikeouts
9
128
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jo AdellCLE2-4213
Mickey MoniakCOL1-4111
Connor NorbyCOL1-2111
Troy JohnstonCOL2-4001
Patrick BaileyCLE1-3001
Jake McCarthyCOL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner Bibee (W)CLE6.05216
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.01101
Gabriel Hughes (L)COL5.04322

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · CLE 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 59%, COL 41% · Updated Aug 22

Expected margin
CLE by 1.2
Expected score
CLE 6.1 – 5.0 COL
Expected total
11.1
GuardiansThe matchupRockies
−144Our fair odds+144
6.1Expected runs5.0
−0.01Power rating−0.46
4.0Runs / game4.8
4.1Allowed / game5.8
7.8Hits / game8.6
0.95Home runs / game1.11
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
63−66Season record50−78
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · COL chance
Our model fair59.1%40.9%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−14459%−14258.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+14441%+11945.7%———
SpreadCLE by 1.2
CLECleveland Guardians−1.2our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.1
Over11.1our total————
Under11.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 1.2 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 17 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 16 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 15 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byCOL wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more47%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted
COLGabriel Hughes SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 12.82 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·COL
Aug 21 at COL
last game
Aug 21 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 128+ games
CLE·COL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.46
4.0
runs / game
4.8
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.8
63−66
season record
50−78
31−34
home record
27−36
32−32
away record
23−42
W2
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.6
0.95
home runs / game
1.11
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.53
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

CLE · COL · 147 days
Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
Aug 21at COLCLE 9 − 1
Jul 30, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 4
Jul 28, 2025at CLECOL 8 − 6
May 29, 2024at COLCOL 7 − 4
May 28, 2024at COLCLE 13 − 7
May 27, 2024at COLCOL 8 − 6
Apr 26, 2023at CLECLE 4 − 1
Apr 25, 2023at CLECOL 5 − 1
Apr 24, 2023at CLECOL 6 − 0

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 21at COL9 − 1W
Aug 20vs SF5 − 2W
Aug 19vs SF0 − 1L
Aug 18vs SF8 − 1W
Aug 16vs SD0 − 5L
Aug 15vs SD6 − 1W
Aug 14vs SD5 − 7L
Aug 13at DET0 − 3L
Aug 12at DET6 − 4W
Aug 11at DET4 − 6L

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Aug 21vs CLE1 − 9L
Aug 19vs LAD4 − 6L
Aug 18vs LAD6 − 7L
Aug 17vs LAD5 − 11L
Aug 16at SF13 − 7W
Aug 15at SF1 − 7L
Aug 14at SF5 − 2W
Aug 12at ARI6 − 4W
Aug 11at ARI3 − 2W
Aug 10at ARI0 − 9L