bayesRatings

Braves at White Sox

MLB · Thursday, Aug 20 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final ATL 2 – CHW 0
← MLB / Aug 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL001000100280
CHW000000000011
Team box
ATL·CHW
8
hits
1
0
home runs
0
1
walks
3
11
strikeouts
10
133
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Austin RileyATL2-4002
Mauricio DubonATL3-4100
Sean MurphyATL1-4000
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4000
Michael Harris IIATL1-4100
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grant Holmes (W)ATL6.01033
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00002
Anthony Kay (L)CHW6.05216

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · ATL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 52%, CHW 48% · Updated Aug 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 4.3 CHW
Expected total
9.0
BravesThe matchupWhite Sox
−108Our fair odds+108
4.7Expected runs4.3
+0.14Power rating−0.00
4.8Runs / game4.8
3.9Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.1
1.31Home runs / game1.33
2.9Walks drawn / game3.5
74−53Season record66−60
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · CHW chance
Our model fair51.8%48.1%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10852%−11252.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+10848%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.4our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byCHW wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more40%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 10 Kstarted
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·CHW
Aug 19 at MIN
last game
Aug 19 at CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 126+ games
ATL·CHW
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.8
runs / game
4.8
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
74−53
season record
66−60
42−23
home record
37−24
32−30
away record
29−36
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
8.1
1.31
home runs / game
1.33
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.46
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

ATL · CHW · 145 days
Atlanta BravesChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 7−3
Jun 10at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jun 9at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Aug 20, 2025at ATLATL 1 − 0
Aug 19, 2025at ATLATL 11 − 10
Aug 18, 2025at ATLCHW 13 − 9
Jun 27, 2024at CHWCHW 1 − 0
Apr 2, 2024at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Apr 1, 2024at CHWATL 9 − 0
Jul 16, 2023at ATLCHW 8 − 1
Jul 15, 2023at ATLCHW 6 − 5

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Aug 19at MIN4 − 6L
Aug 18at MIN1 − 4L
Aug 17at MIN2 − 4L
Aug 16vs ARI5 − 3W
Aug 15vs ARI3 − 10L
Aug 14vs ARI0 − 2L
Aug 12vs NYM6 − 3W
Aug 11vs NYM4 − 0W
Aug 10vs NYM5 − 8L
Aug 9at NYY2 − 1W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 19at CHC3 − 0W
Aug 18at CHC3 − 4L
Aug 17at CHC5 − 7L
Aug 16at DET7 − 5W
Aug 15at DET4 − 3W
Aug 14at DET9 − 5W
Aug 13vs CIN8 − 9L
Aug 12vs CIN5 − 0W
Aug 11vs CIN4 − 5L
Aug 9vs CLE5 − 3W