bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Braves

MLB · Friday, Aug 14 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final ARI 2 – ATL 0
← MLB / Aug 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI1000000012100
ATL000000000030
Team box
ARI·ATL
10
hits
3
1
home runs
0
1
walks
0
11
strikeouts
11
117
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Geraldo PerdomoARI4-5100
Tim TawaARI1-3111
Corbin CarrollARI2-4000
Gabriel MorenoARI1-5001
Ildemaro VargasARI1-4000
Lars NootbaarARI1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Pfaadt (W)ARI7.02007
Brandyn Garcia (S)ARI1.00002
Chris Sale (L)ATL6.05109

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · ARI 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Aug 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.6 – 4.2 ARI
Expected total
8.8
DiamondbacksThe matchupBraves
+123Our fair odds−123
4.2Expected runs4.6
+0.05Power rating+0.19
4.5Runs / game4.9
4.4Allowed / game3.9
8.1Hits / game8.4
0.97Home runs / game1.36
3.4Walks drawn / game3.0
64−58Season record73−48
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · ATL chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+12345%+17336.6%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12355%−20867.6%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more39%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more29%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIBrandon Pfaadt SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 9 Kstarted
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 28 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·ATL
Aug 12 vs COL
last game
Aug 12 vs NYM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 121+ games
ARI·ATL
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
4.5
runs / game
4.9
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.9
64−58
season record
73−48
36−27
home record
41−21
28−31
away record
32−27
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.1
hits / game
8.4
0.97
home runs / game
1.36
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.37
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

ARI · ATL · 139 days
Arizona DiamondbacksAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Apr 5at ARIARI 6 − 5
Apr 4at ARIARI 2 − 1
Apr 3at ARIATL 2 − 0
Apr 2at ARIATL 17 − 2
Jun 5, 2025at ATLARI 11 − 10
Jun 4, 2025at ATLARI 2 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at ATLARI 8 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 4
Apr 26, 2025at ARIATL 8 − 7
Apr 25, 2025at ARIATL 8 − 2

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 12vs COL4 − 6L
Aug 11vs COL2 − 3L
Aug 10vs COL9 − 0W
Aug 9vs LAD4 − 2W
Aug 8vs LAD1 − 2L
Aug 7vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 6vs SD1 − 5L
Aug 5vs SD10 − 4W
Aug 4vs SD4 − 9L
Aug 3vs SD5 − 1W

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Aug 12vs NYM6 − 3W
Aug 11vs NYM4 − 0W
Aug 10vs NYM5 − 8L
Aug 9at NYY2 − 1W
Aug 8at NYY4 − 5L
Aug 7at NYY2 − 3L
Aug 6vs MIA11 − 3W
Aug 5vs MIA4 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIA4 − 2W
Aug 2vs WSH4 − 2W