bayesRatings

White Sox at Cubs

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 19 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final CHW 3 – CHC 0
← MLB / Aug 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000001020390
CHC000000000020
Team box
CHW·CHC
9
hits
2
0
home runs
0
6
walks
3
5
strikeouts
10
114
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Braden MontgomeryCHW2-4002
Tyrone TaylorCHC2-2000
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-2001
Miguel VargasCHW2-3200
Randal GrichukCHW1-2100
Jake RogersCHW1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean NewcombCHW2.00020
Jose Urquidy (W)CHW6.02008
Grant Taylor (S)CHW1.00012
Clay Holmes (L)CHC5.16121

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · CHW 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 42%, CHC 58% · Updated Aug 19

Expected margin
CHC by 0.7
Expected score
CHC 5.0 – 4.4 CHW
Expected total
9.4
White SoxThe matchupCubs
+139Our fair odds−139
4.4Expected runs5.0
−0.01Power rating+0.25
4.8Runs / game5.2
4.5Allowed / game4.4
8.0Hits / game8.6
1.34Home runs / game1.29
3.4Walks drawn / game4.3
65−60Season record74−53
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · CHC chance
Our model fair41.9%58.1%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+13942%+12444.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13958%−14859.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.7
CHWChicago White Sox+0.7our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.7 expected
Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 16%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more32%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWSean Newcomb RP · last 3 starts: 9.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CHCClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·CHC
Aug 18 at CHC
last game
Aug 18 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 125+ games
CHW·CHC
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
4.8
runs / game
5.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
65−60
season record
74−53
37−24
home record
38−26
28−36
away record
36−27
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.6
1.34
home runs / game
1.29
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.54
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

CHW · CHC · 144 days
Chicago White SoxChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 7−3
Aug 18at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Aug 17at CHCCHC 7 − 5
May 17at CHWCHW 9 − 8
May 16at CHWCHW 8 − 3
May 15at CHWCHC 10 − 5
Jul 27, 2025at CHWCHC 5 − 4
Jul 26, 2025at CHWCHC 6 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at CHWCHW 12 − 5
May 18, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 2
May 17, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 3

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Aug 18at CHC3 − 4L
Aug 17at CHC5 − 7L
Aug 16at DET7 − 5W
Aug 15at DET4 − 3W
Aug 14at DET9 − 5W
Aug 13vs CIN8 − 9L
Aug 12vs CIN5 − 0W
Aug 11vs CIN4 − 5L
Aug 9vs CLE5 − 3W
Aug 8vs CLE6 − 3W

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 18vs CHW4 − 3W
Aug 17vs CHW7 − 5W
Aug 16vs STL4 − 11L
Aug 15vs STL4 − 8L
Aug 14vs STL3 − 0W
Aug 13at WSH0 − 7L
Aug 12at WSH12 − 6W
Aug 11at WSH8 − 6W
Aug 9at KC10 − 2W
Aug 8at KC3 − 6L