bayesRatings

Cardinals at Cubs

MLB · Saturday, Aug 15 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final STL 8 – CHC 4
← MLB / Aug 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL300103010871
CHC030000010480
Team box
STL·CHC
7
hits
8
5
home runs
1
3
walks
2
4
strikeouts
6
144
pitches thrown
138
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joshua BaezSTL3-4335
Michael ConfortoCHC1-2113
Alec BurlesonSTL1-3312
Blaze JordanSTL1-4111
Pedro RamirezCHC2-4100
Tyrone TaylorCHC1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevy (W)STL6.05026
Matthew Boyd (L)CHC5.15732

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +5
STL +5
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · STL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 41%, CHC 59% · Updated Aug 15

Expected margin
CHC by 1.1
Expected score
CHC 5.1 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
9.2
CardinalsThe matchupCubs
+141Our fair odds−141
4.0Expected runs5.1
−0.01Power rating+0.26
4.3Runs / game5.2
4.4Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game8.5
1.00Home runs / game1.27
3.2Walks drawn / game4.3
61−61Season record72−51
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair41.5%58.5%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+14141%+15938.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−14159%−19165.6%———
SpreadCHC by 1.1
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.1our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.1 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%
← STL wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more46%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more35%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 9.26 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 2.61 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·CHC
Aug 14 at CHC
last game
Aug 14 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 122+ games
STL·CHC
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
4.3
runs / game
5.2
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.3
61−61
season record
72−51
32−34
home record
36−24
29−27
away record
36−27
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
8−2
8.0
hits / game
8.5
1.00
home runs / game
1.27
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.43
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

STL · CHC · 140 days
St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Aug 14at CHCCHC 3 − 0
Jul 30at STLCHC 4 − 2
Jul 29at STLSTL 3 − 2
Jul 28at STLCHC 10 − 2
Jul 27at STLCHC 7 − 3
Jul 5at CHCCHC 6 − 4
Jul 4at CHCSTL 3 − 0
Jul 3at CHCSTL 17 − 1
May 31at STLSTL 5 − 1
May 30at STLCHC 6 − 1

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 14at CHC0 − 3L
Aug 12vs PHI7 − 1W
Aug 11vs PHI2 − 0W
Aug 10vs PHI5 − 6L
Aug 9vs COL7 − 4W
Aug 8vs COL6 − 8L
Aug 7vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 5at NYY3 − 1W
Aug 4at NYY0 − 2L
Aug 3at NYY13 − 7W

CHC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Aug 14vs STL3 − 0W
Aug 13at WSH0 − 7L
Aug 12at WSH12 − 6W
Aug 11at WSH8 − 6W
Aug 9at KC10 − 2W
Aug 8at KC3 − 6L
Aug 7at KC6 − 4W
Aug 6vs TOR3 − 2W
Aug 5vs LAD7 − 6W
Aug 4vs LAD5 − 1W