bayesRatings

Phillies at Cardinals

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 12 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final PHI 1 – STL 7
← MLB / Aug 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000100000161
STL01004020780
Team box
PHI·STL
6
hits
8
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
8
strikeouts
9
139
pitches thrown
133
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BurlesonSTL2-3103
Nathan ChurchSTL1-3002
Luis ArraezPHI1-4001
Alec BohmPHI2-3000
Ivan HerreraSTL1-4201
Jordan WalkerSTL1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Wheeler (L)PHI5.06415
Kyle Leahy (W)STL5.06106

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +6
PHI +6
123456789
largest lead: STL 6 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 51%, STL 49% · Updated Aug 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.4 – 4.1 STL
Expected total
8.5
PhilliesThe matchupCardinals
−105Our fair odds+105
4.4Expected runs4.1
+0.10Power rating−0.02
4.4Runs / game4.3
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.0Hits / game8.1
1.23Home runs / game1.02
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
64−57Season record60−60
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · STL chance
Our model fair51.3%48.7%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10551%−16862.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10549%+14041.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.3our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 13%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins bySTL wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more38%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more28%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 7.84 ERA, 15 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·STL
Aug 11 at STL
last game
Aug 11 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 120+ games
PHI·STL
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.4
runs / game
4.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
64−57
season record
60−60
32−30
home record
31−34
32−27
away record
29−26
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.1
1.23
home runs / game
1.02
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.50
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

PHI · STL · 137 days
Philadelphia PhilliesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 6−4
Aug 11at STLSTL 2 − 0
Aug 10at STLPHI 6 − 5
May 14, 2025at PHISTL 14 − 7
May 14, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at PHISTL 3 − 2
Apr 13, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 0
Apr 12, 2025at STLPHI 4 − 1
Apr 11, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 0
Jun 2, 2024at PHISTL 5 − 4
Jun 1, 2024at PHIPHI 6 − 1

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 11at STL0 − 2L
Aug 10at STL6 − 5W
Aug 9vs TOR7 − 6W
Aug 8vs TOR5 − 7L
Aug 7vs TOR4 − 5L
Aug 6vs WSH7 − 3W
Aug 5vs WSH4 − 10L
Aug 4vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 3vs WSH6 − 3W
Aug 2at BAL8 − 0W

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 11vs PHI2 − 0W
Aug 10vs PHI5 − 6L
Aug 9vs COL7 − 4W
Aug 8vs COL6 − 8L
Aug 7vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 5at NYY3 − 1W
Aug 4at NYY0 − 2L
Aug 3at NYY13 − 7W
Aug 2at TOR5 − 1W
Aug 1at TOR1 − 5L