bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Phillies

MLB · Friday, Aug 7 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final TOR 5 – PHI 4
← MLB / Aug 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR011101010592
PHI011000002450
Team box
TOR·PHI
9
hits
5
2
home runs
0
5
walks
10
7
strikeouts
6
196
pitches thrown
164
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh SmithTOR3-4311
Bryce HarperPHI2-4002
Andres GimenezTOR1-4111
Nathan LukesTOR2-5001
Alejandro KirkTOR0-3002
J.T. RealmutoPHI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose SorianoTOR4.24133
Lazaro Estrada (W)TOR1.10021
Tyler Rogers (S)TOR1.01130
Zack Wheeler (L)PHI5.17456

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 0 · TOR 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 46%, PHI 54% · Updated Aug 7

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.6 – 4.0 TOR
Expected total
8.6
Blue JaysThe matchupPhillies
+120Our fair odds−120
4.0Expected runs4.6
−0.01Power rating+0.11
3.9Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game8.0
0.95Home runs / game1.25
2.7Walks drawn / game3.0
54−62Season record62−54
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · PHI chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshi36.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+12046%+17336.6%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12054%−21868.5%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 12 Kstarted
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 5.25 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·PHI
Aug 6 at CHC
last game
Aug 6 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 116+ games
TOR·PHI
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
3.9
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
54−62
season record
62−54
28−31
home record
31−28
26−31
away record
31−26
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.0
0.95
home runs / game
1.25
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.65
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

TOR · PHI · 132 days
Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Jun 10at TORPHI 7 − 4
Jun 9at TORTOR 3 − 2
Jun 8at TORPHI 5 − 2
Jun 15, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 4
Jun 14, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at TORTOR 9 − 1
Jun 4, 2025at TORTOR 2 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at TORPHI 8 − 3
Sep 4, 2024at TORPHI 4 − 2

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 6at CHC2 − 3L
Aug 5at HOU5 − 4W
Aug 4at HOU2 − 7L
Aug 3at HOU3 − 1W
Aug 2vs STL1 − 5L
Aug 1vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 31vs STL3 − 1W
Jul 29at WSH5 − 2W
Jul 28at WSH6 − 8L
Jul 27at WSH3 − 2W

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 6vs WSH7 − 3W
Aug 5vs WSH4 − 10L
Aug 4vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 3vs WSH6 − 3W
Aug 2at BAL8 − 0W
Aug 1at BAL5 − 0W
Jul 31at BAL4 − 6L
Jul 29at MIA6 − 8L
Jul 28at MIA0 − 1L
Jul 27at MIA7 − 8L