bayesRatings

Phillies at Cardinals

MLB · Monday, Aug 10 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final PHI 6 – STL 5
← MLB / Aug 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI020010120680
STL000002030582
Team box
PHI·STL
8
hits
8
0
home runs
0
7
walks
4
10
strikeouts
10
158
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Edmundo SosaPHI2-3003
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4103
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-3101
Bryson StottPHI2-4000
Jose FerminSTL1-2001
Ivan HerreraSTL2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Painter (W)PHI5.12236
Jonathan Bowlan (S)PHI1.00001
Hunter Dobbins (L)STL5.04136

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +4
PHI +4
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · PHI 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 51%, STL 49% · Updated Aug 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.5 – 4.1 STL
Expected total
8.6
PhilliesThe matchupCardinals
−106Our fair odds+106
4.5Expected runs4.1
+0.10Power rating−0.02
4.4Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.0Hits / game8.1
1.25Home runs / game1.03
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
63−56Season record59−59
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · STL chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10651%−12154.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10649%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.4our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 12%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins bySTL wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more39%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 13 Kstarted
STLHunter Dobbins SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·STL
Aug 9 vs TOR
last game
Aug 9 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 118+ games
PHI·STL
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.4
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
63−56
season record
59−59
32−30
home record
30−33
31−26
away record
29−26
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.1
1.25
home runs / game
1.03
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.51
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

PHI · STL · 135 days
Philadelphia PhilliesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
May 14, 2025at PHISTL 14 − 7
May 14, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at PHISTL 3 − 2
Apr 13, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 0
Apr 12, 2025at STLPHI 4 − 1
Apr 11, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 0
Jun 2, 2024at PHISTL 5 − 4
Jun 1, 2024at PHIPHI 6 − 1
May 31, 2024at PHIPHI 4 − 2
Apr 10, 2024at STLPHI 4 − 3

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 9vs TOR7 − 6W
Aug 8vs TOR5 − 7L
Aug 7vs TOR4 − 5L
Aug 6vs WSH7 − 3W
Aug 5vs WSH4 − 10L
Aug 4vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 3vs WSH6 − 3W
Aug 2at BAL8 − 0W
Aug 1at BAL5 − 0W
Jul 31at BAL4 − 6L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 9vs COL7 − 4W
Aug 8vs COL6 − 8L
Aug 7vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 5at NYY3 − 1W
Aug 4at NYY0 − 2L
Aug 3at NYY13 − 7W
Aug 2at TOR5 − 1W
Aug 1at TOR1 − 5L
Jul 31at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 30vs CHC2 − 4L