bayesRatings

Cardinals at Cubs

MLB · Sunday, Aug 16 · 2:00 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final STL 11 – CHC 4
← MLB / Aug 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL21060002011130
CHC002000011460
Team box
STL·CHC
13
hits
6
2
home runs
2
5
walks
5
9
strikeouts
11
163
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BurlesonSTL3-5214
Jordan WalkerSTL3-4114
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-5112
Miguel AmayaCHC1-3111
Blaze JordanSTL2-5101
JJ WetherholtSTL2-4301
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hunter Dobbins (W)STL5.02247
Edward Cabrera (L)CHC3.26732

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +9
STL +9
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · STL 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 42%, CHC 58% · Updated Aug 16

Expected margin
CHC by 1.0
Expected score
CHC 5.2 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
9.3
CardinalsThe matchupCubs
+137Our fair odds−137
4.2Expected runs5.2
−0.00Power rating+0.25
4.4Runs / game5.2
4.4Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game8.5
1.03Home runs / game1.27
3.2Walks drawn / game4.2
62−61Season record72−52
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+13742%+15239.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13758%−18364.6%———
SpreadCHC by 1.0
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.0 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%
← STL wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more45%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more34%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLHunter Dobbins SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·CHC
Aug 15 at CHC
last game
Aug 15 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 123+ games
STL·CHC
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
4.4
runs / game
5.2
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.3
62−61
season record
72−52
32−34
home record
36−25
30−27
away record
36−27
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
8.5
1.03
home runs / game
1.27
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.2
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.44
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

STL · CHC · 141 days
St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Aug 15at CHCSTL 8 − 4
Aug 14at CHCCHC 3 − 0
Jul 30at STLCHC 4 − 2
Jul 29at STLSTL 3 − 2
Jul 28at STLCHC 10 − 2
Jul 27at STLCHC 7 − 3
Jul 5at CHCCHC 6 − 4
Jul 4at CHCSTL 3 − 0
Jul 3at CHCSTL 17 − 1
May 31at STLSTL 5 − 1

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 15at CHC8 − 4W
Aug 14at CHC0 − 3L
Aug 12vs PHI7 − 1W
Aug 11vs PHI2 − 0W
Aug 10vs PHI5 − 6L
Aug 9vs COL7 − 4W
Aug 8vs COL6 − 8L
Aug 7vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 5at NYY3 − 1W
Aug 4at NYY0 − 2L

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Aug 15vs STL4 − 8L
Aug 14vs STL3 − 0W
Aug 13at WSH0 − 7L
Aug 12at WSH12 − 6W
Aug 11at WSH8 − 6W
Aug 9at KC10 − 2W
Aug 8at KC3 − 6L
Aug 7at KC6 − 4W
Aug 6vs TOR3 − 2W
Aug 5vs LAD7 − 6W