bayesRatings

Braves at Twins

MLB · Monday, Aug 17 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final ATL 2 – MIN 4
← MLB / Aug 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000020000271
MIN400000004100
Team box
ATL·MIN
7
hits
10
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
5
131
pitches thrown
162
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh BellMIN2-3102
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-4002
Kody ClemensMIN2-4001
Drake BaldwinATL2-5100
Royce LewisMIN1-4001
Luke KeaschallMIN2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Martin Perez (L)ATL5.09423
Bailey OberMIN4.16214
Travis Adams (W)MIN2.00003
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +4
ATL +4
123456789
largest lead: MIN 4 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 55%, MIN 45% · Updated Aug 17

Expected margin
ATL by 1.1
Expected score
ATL 5.3 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
9.6
BravesThe matchupTwins
−125Our fair odds+125
5.3Expected runs4.2
+0.17Power rating−0.11
4.8Runs / game4.6
3.9Allowed / game5.0
8.4Hits / game8.3
1.34Home runs / game1.17
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
74−50Season record60−65
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−12555%−13757.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+12545%+10947.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.1
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.1 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byMIN wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more46%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more36%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 11 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIN
Aug 16 vs ARI
last game
Aug 16 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 124+ games
ATL·MIN
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.8
runs / game
4.6
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.0
74−50
season record
60−65
42−23
home record
32−31
32−27
away record
28−34
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.3
1.34
home runs / game
1.17
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.45
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

ATL · MIN · 142 days
Atlanta BravesMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 0−9
Apr 20, 2025at ATLATL 6 − 2
Apr 19, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
Apr 18, 2025at ATLATL 6 − 4
Aug 28, 2024at MINATL 5 − 1
Aug 27, 2024at MINATL 8 − 6
Aug 26, 2024at MINATL 10 − 6
Jun 28, 2023at ATLATL 3 − 0
Jun 27, 2023at ATLATL 6 − 2
Jun 26, 2023at ATLATL 4 − 1

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 16vs ARI5 − 3W
Aug 15vs ARI3 − 10L
Aug 14vs ARI0 − 2L
Aug 12vs NYM6 − 3W
Aug 11vs NYM4 − 0W
Aug 10vs NYM5 − 8L
Aug 9at NYY2 − 1W
Aug 8at NYY4 − 5L
Aug 7at NYY2 − 3L
Aug 6vs MIA11 − 3W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Aug 16vs PHI5 − 7L
Aug 15vs PHI1 − 9L
Aug 13vs PHI1 − 7L
Aug 12vs BAL7 − 5W
Aug 11vs BAL2 − 5L
Aug 10vs BAL9 − 5W
Aug 9at MIL3 − 4L
Aug 8at MIL3 − 4L
Aug 7at MIL8 − 6W
Aug 6at KC4 − 3W