bayesRatings

Phillies at Twins

MLB · Saturday, Aug 15 · 6:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final PHI 9 – MIN 1
← MLB / Aug 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI0100700019130
MIN000001000190
Team box
PHI·MIN
13
hits
9
1
home runs
0
6
walks
4
8
strikeouts
14
149
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BohmPHI5-5201
Bryson StottPHI1-3113
J.T. RealmutoPHI1-3102
Edmundo SosaPHI1-4102
Royce LewisMIN1-4001
Kaelen CulpepperMIN2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus Luzardo (W)PHI6.27129
Connor Prielipp (L)MIN5.08846

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +8
PHI +8
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · PHI 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, MIN 47% · Updated Aug 15

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 5.1 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.6
PhilliesThe matchupTwins
−113Our fair odds+113
5.1Expected runs4.5
+0.10Power rating−0.10
4.4Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game5.0
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.24Home runs / game1.17
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
65−58Season record60−63
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIN chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11353%−13156.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+11347%+10947.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byMIN wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more42%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more32%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 21.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 24 Kstarted
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIN
Aug 13 at MIN
last game
Aug 13 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 123+ games
PHI·MIN
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.4
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.0
65−58
season record
60−63
32−30
home record
32−29
33−28
away record
28−34
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.24
home runs / game
1.17
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.50
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

PHI · MIN · 140 days
Philadelphia PhilliesMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Aug 13at MINPHI 7 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
Sep 27, 2025at PHIMIN 5 − 0
Sep 26, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Jul 24, 2024at MINMIN 5 − 4
Jul 23, 2024at MINPHI 3 − 0
Jul 22, 2024at MINMIN 7 − 2
Aug 13, 2023at PHIMIN 3 − 0
Aug 12, 2023at PHIMIN 8 − 1
Aug 11, 2023at PHIPHI 13 − 2

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 13at MIN7 − 1W
Aug 12at STL1 − 7L
Aug 11at STL0 − 2L
Aug 10at STL6 − 5W
Aug 9vs TOR7 − 6W
Aug 8vs TOR5 − 7L
Aug 7vs TOR4 − 5L
Aug 6vs WSH7 − 3W
Aug 5vs WSH4 − 10L
Aug 4vs WSH5 − 0W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 13vs PHI1 − 7L
Aug 12vs BAL7 − 5W
Aug 11vs BAL2 − 5L
Aug 10vs BAL9 − 5W
Aug 9at MIL3 − 4L
Aug 8at MIL3 − 4L
Aug 7at MIL8 − 6W
Aug 6at KC4 − 3W
Aug 5at KC1 − 2L
Aug 4at KC2 − 8L