bayesRatings

Phillies at Twins

MLB · Thursday, Aug 13 · 6:30 PM CT · Field of Dreams · neutral site · Final PHI 7 – MIN 1
← MLB / Aug 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI2003002007120
MIN010000000180
Team box
PHI·MIN
12
hits
8
3
home runs
1
4
walks
3
7
strikeouts
12
148
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-5223
Brandon MarshPHI2-2212
Luke KeaschallMIN2-3111
Luis ArraezPHI3-5000
Trevor LarnachMIN2-5000
Ryan JeffersMIN2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (W)PHI5.05139
Taj Bradley (L)MIN4.07543

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +6
PHI +6
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · PHI 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 54%, MIN 46% · Updated Aug 13

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 5.0 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
9.3
PhilliesThe matchupTwins
−119Our fair odds+119
5.0Expected runs4.4
+0.09Power rating−0.09
4.4Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game4.9
7.9Hits / game8.3
1.22Home runs / game1.17
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
64−58Season record60−62
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIN chance
Our model fair54.3%45.7%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11954%−10751.8%———
MINMinnesota Twins+11946%−11653.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 13%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byMIN wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIN
Aug 12 at STL
last game
Aug 12 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 122+ games
PHI·MIN
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.4
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
64−58
season record
60−62
32−30
home record
32−28
32−28
away record
28−34
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.3
1.22
home runs / game
1.17
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.51
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

PHI · MIN · 138 days
Philadelphia PhilliesMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 5−4
Sep 28, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
Sep 27, 2025at PHIMIN 5 − 0
Sep 26, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Jul 24, 2024at MINMIN 5 − 4
Jul 23, 2024at MINPHI 3 − 0
Jul 22, 2024at MINMIN 7 − 2
Aug 13, 2023at PHIMIN 3 − 0
Aug 12, 2023at PHIMIN 8 − 1
Aug 11, 2023at PHIPHI 13 − 2

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 12at STL1 − 7L
Aug 11at STL0 − 2L
Aug 10at STL6 − 5W
Aug 9vs TOR7 − 6W
Aug 8vs TOR5 − 7L
Aug 7vs TOR4 − 5L
Aug 6vs WSH7 − 3W
Aug 5vs WSH4 − 10L
Aug 4vs WSH5 − 0W
Aug 3vs WSH6 − 3W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 12vs BAL7 − 5W
Aug 11vs BAL2 − 5L
Aug 10vs BAL9 − 5W
Aug 9at MIL3 − 4L
Aug 8at MIL3 − 4L
Aug 7at MIL8 − 6W
Aug 6at KC4 − 3W
Aug 5at KC1 − 2L
Aug 4at KC2 − 8L
Aug 2at SEA6 − 7L