bayesRatings

Orioles at Twins

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 11 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final BAL 5 – MIN 2
← MLB / Aug 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL2210000005111
MIN011000000270
Team box
BAL·MIN
11
hits
7
3
home runs
0
3
walks
4
9
strikeouts
7
143
pitches thrown
158
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete AlonsoBAL3-4112
Gunnar HendersonBAL3-5212
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL3-4111
Brooks LeeMIN2-4001
Royce LewisMIN2-4100
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Young (W)BAL6.06134
Andrew Kittredge (S)BAL1.00001
Bailey Ober (L)MIN6.08514

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +4
BAL +4
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · BAL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 49%, MIN 51% · Updated Aug 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 4.8 – 4.8 BAL
Expected total
9.7
OriolesThe matchupTwins
+105Our fair odds−105
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating−0.08
4.5Runs / game4.7
4.8Allowed / game4.9
7.8Hits / game8.2
1.16Home runs / game1.19
3.9Walks drawn / game3.3
57−62Season record59−61
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10549%−10350.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10551%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore OriolesPKour margin————
MINMinnesota TwinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 12%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more37%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more27%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·MIN
Aug 10 at MIN
last game
Aug 10 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 119+ games
BAL·MIN
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.5
runs / game
4.7
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.9
57−62
season record
59−61
32−30
home record
31−27
25−32
away record
28−34
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.2
1.16
home runs / game
1.19
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.66
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

BAL · MIN · 136 days
Baltimore OriolesMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 8−2
Aug 10at MINMIN 9 − 5
Mar 29at BALBAL 8 − 6
Mar 28at BALMIN 4 − 1
Mar 26at BALBAL 2 − 1
May 15, 2025at BALMIN 4 − 0
May 14, 2025at BALMIN 8 − 6
May 14, 2025at BALMIN 6 − 3
May 8, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 2
May 7, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 2
May 6, 2025at MINMIN 9 − 1

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 10at MIN5 − 9L
Aug 9at TEX10 − 5W
Aug 8at TEX1 − 5L
Aug 7at TEX1 − 2L
Aug 6vs LAA1 − 4L
Aug 5vs LAA5 − 2W
Aug 4vs LAA3 − 1W
Aug 2vs PHI0 − 8L
Aug 1vs PHI0 − 5L
Jul 31vs PHI6 − 4W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 10vs BAL9 − 5W
Aug 9at MIL3 − 4L
Aug 8at MIL3 − 4L
Aug 7at MIL8 − 6W
Aug 6at KC4 − 3W
Aug 5at KC1 − 2L
Aug 4at KC2 − 8L
Aug 2at SEA6 − 7L
Aug 1at SEA3 − 4L
Jul 31at SEA5 − 3W