bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Braves

MLB · Saturday, Aug 15 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final ARI 10 – ATL 3
← MLB / Aug 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI03300010310130
ATL200000001360
Team box
ARI·ATL
13
hits
6
3
home runs
1
6
walks
0
8
strikeouts
5
128
pitches thrown
175
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan ArenadoARI2-4324
Ildemaro VargasARI1-5113
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2-4111
Gabriel MorenoARI3-4301
Tim TawaARI2-5101
Corbin CarrollARI2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eduardo Rodriguez (W)ARI6.05205
Grant Holmes (L)ATL3.26633

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +8
ARI +8
123456789
largest lead: ATL 2 · ARI 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Aug 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.5 – 4.1 ARI
Expected total
8.7
DiamondbacksThe matchupBraves
+121Our fair odds−121
4.1Expected runs4.5
+0.06Power rating+0.17
4.5Runs / game4.8
4.4Allowed / game3.8
8.2Hits / game8.4
0.97Home runs / game1.34
3.3Walks drawn / game2.9
65−58Season record73−49
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.3%54.7%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+12145%+11446.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12155%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more39%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more29%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·ATL
Aug 14 at ATL
last game
Aug 14 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 122+ games
ARI·ATL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.5
runs / game
4.8
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.8
65−58
season record
73−49
36−27
home record
41−22
29−31
away record
32−27
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
8.4
0.97
home runs / game
1.34
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.37
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

ARI · ATL · 140 days
Arizona DiamondbacksAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 3−7
Aug 14at ATLARI 2 − 0
Apr 5at ARIARI 6 − 5
Apr 4at ARIARI 2 − 1
Apr 3at ARIATL 2 − 0
Apr 2at ARIATL 17 − 2
Jun 5, 2025at ATLARI 11 − 10
Jun 4, 2025at ATLARI 2 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at ATLARI 8 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 4
Apr 26, 2025at ARIATL 8 − 7

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 14at ATL2 − 0W
Aug 12vs COL4 − 6L
Aug 11vs COL2 − 3L
Aug 10vs COL9 − 0W
Aug 9vs LAD4 − 2W
Aug 8vs LAD1 − 2L
Aug 7vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 6vs SD1 − 5L
Aug 5vs SD10 − 4W
Aug 4vs SD4 − 9L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 14vs ARI0 − 2L
Aug 12vs NYM6 − 3W
Aug 11vs NYM4 − 0W
Aug 10vs NYM5 − 8L
Aug 9at NYY2 − 1W
Aug 8at NYY4 − 5L
Aug 7at NYY2 − 3L
Aug 6vs MIA11 − 3W
Aug 5vs MIA4 − 1W
Aug 4vs MIA4 − 2W