bayesRatings

Braves at Twins

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 18 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final ATL 1 – MIN 4
← MLB / Aug 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000001000160
MIN200000024100
Team box
ATL·MIN
6
hits
10
1
home runs
1
1
walks
1
7
strikeouts
5
100
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh BellMIN2-4112
Drake BaldwinATL2-4111
Ryan JeffersMIN2-4102
Michael Harris IIATL3-4000
Luke KeaschallMIN2-4000
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Mahle (L)ATL6.26213
Zebby Matthews (W)MIN5.25114
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 3 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 55%, MIN 45% · Updated Aug 18

Expected margin
ATL by 1.0
Expected score
ATL 5.2 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
9.5
BravesThe matchupTwins
−122Our fair odds+122
5.2Expected runs4.2
+0.16Power rating−0.11
4.8Runs / game4.6
3.9Allowed / game5.0
8.4Hits / game8.3
1.33Home runs / game1.16
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
74−51Season record61−65
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair54.9%45.1%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−12255%−14859.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+12245%+12444.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.0
ATLAtlanta Braves−1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.0 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byMIN wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more45%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more35%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 25 Kstarted
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIN
Aug 17 at MIN
last game
Aug 17 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 125+ games
ATL·MIN
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.8
runs / game
4.6
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.0
74−51
season record
61−65
42−23
home record
33−31
32−28
away record
28−34
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.3
1.33
home runs / game
1.16
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.46
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

ATL · MIN · 143 days
Atlanta BravesMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 1−9
Aug 17at MINMIN 4 − 2
Apr 20, 2025at ATLATL 6 − 2
Apr 19, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
Apr 18, 2025at ATLATL 6 − 4
Aug 28, 2024at MINATL 5 − 1
Aug 27, 2024at MINATL 8 − 6
Aug 26, 2024at MINATL 10 − 6
Jun 28, 2023at ATLATL 3 − 0
Jun 27, 2023at ATLATL 6 − 2
Jun 26, 2023at ATLATL 4 − 1

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 17at MIN2 − 4L
Aug 16vs ARI5 − 3W
Aug 15vs ARI3 − 10L
Aug 14vs ARI0 − 2L
Aug 12vs NYM6 − 3W
Aug 11vs NYM4 − 0W
Aug 10vs NYM5 − 8L
Aug 9at NYY2 − 1W
Aug 8at NYY4 − 5L
Aug 7at NYY2 − 3L

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 17vs ATL4 − 2W
Aug 16vs PHI5 − 7L
Aug 15vs PHI1 − 9L
Aug 13vs PHI1 − 7L
Aug 12vs BAL7 − 5W
Aug 11vs BAL2 − 5L
Aug 10vs BAL9 − 5W
Aug 9at MIL3 − 4L
Aug 8at MIL3 − 4L
Aug 7at MIL8 − 6W