bayesRatings

Rockies at Nationals

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 26 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final COL 13 – WSH 1
← MLB / Aug 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL00004045013150
WSH010000000170
Team box
COL·WSH
15
hits
7
4
home runs
1
8
walks
0
7
strikeouts
7
116
pitches thrown
187
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Connor NorbyCOL2-4315
Troy JohnstonCOL2-4112
Hunter GoodmanCOL2-6212
Cole CarriggCOL2-6212
Andres ChaparroWSH3-4111
Ezequiel TovarCOL2-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner Gordon (W)COL7.06105
Matt WaldronWSH2.02011
Will Dion (L)WSH2.24423

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +12
COL +12
123456789
largest lead: WSH 1 · COL 12lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 39%, WSH 61% · Updated Aug 26

Expected margin
WSH by 0.9
Expected score
WSH 6.2 – 5.3 COL
Expected total
11.6
RockiesThe matchupNationals
+157Our fair odds−157
5.3Expected runs6.2
−0.48Power rating−0.10
4.7Runs / game5.2
5.8Allowed / game5.1
8.5Hits / game8.5
1.11Home runs / game1.38
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
51−81Season record62−72
2−8Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair38.8%61.2%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+15739%+11446.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−15761%−13757.7%———
SpreadWSH by 0.9
COLColorado Rockies+0.9our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.6
Over11.6our total————
Under11.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Nationals by 0.9 expected
Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 8%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%
← COL wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more44%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more36%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 2%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 6%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.560%
Total over 11.545%
Total over 13.532%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLTanner Gordon SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA, 10 Kstarted
WSHMatt Waldron RP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 9.88 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·WSH
Aug 25 at WSH
last game
Aug 25 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
COL·WSH
−0.48
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.7
runs / game
5.2
5.8
runs allowed / game
5.1
51−81
season record
62−72
27−38
home record
28−37
24−43
away record
34−35
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
2−8
8.5
hits / game
8.5
1.11
home runs / game
1.38
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.65
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

COL · WSH · 151 days
Colorado RockiesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Aug 25at WSHCOL 3 − 1
Aug 24at WSHWSH 13 − 3
Jul 22at COLWSH 8 − 0
Jul 21at COLCOL 8 − 7
Jul 20at COLWSH 7 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at WSHCOL 3 − 1
Jun 17, 2025at WSHCOL 10 − 6
Jun 16, 2025at WSHCOL 6 − 4
Apr 20, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 1

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Aug 25at WSH3 − 1W
Aug 24at WSH3 − 13L
Aug 23vs CLE2 − 7L
Aug 22vs CLE3 − 4L
Aug 21vs CLE1 − 9L
Aug 19vs LAD4 − 6L
Aug 18vs LAD6 − 7L
Aug 17vs LAD5 − 11L
Aug 16at SF13 − 7W
Aug 15at SF1 − 7L

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Aug 25vs COL1 − 3L
Aug 24vs COL13 − 3W
Aug 23at MIA2 − 6L
Aug 22at MIA2 − 4L
Aug 21at MIA2 − 3L
Aug 20at TEX0 − 2L
Aug 19at TEX6 − 0W
Aug 18at TEX0 − 5L
Aug 16at NYM3 − 4L
Aug 15at NYM4 − 5L