bayesRatings

Dodgers at Braves

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 26 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final LAD 5 – ATL 6
← MLB / Aug 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD0120002005100
ATL1003010016140
Team box
LAD·ATL
10
hits
14
1
home runs
2
7
walks
6
6
strikeouts
7
177
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tommy EdmanLAD2-4213
Sean MurphyATL3-4211
Drake BaldwinATL3-4002
Matt OlsonATL1-3111
Austin RileyATL1-3001
Mauricio DubonATL2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Roki SasakiLAD3.16423
Tanner Scott (L)LAD0.22111
AJ Smith-ShawverATL5.05333
Victor Mederos (W)ATL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 2 · LAD 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 52%, ATL 48% · Updated Aug 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LAD 4.4 – 4.0 ATL
Expected total
8.4
DodgersThe matchupBraves
−108Our fair odds+108
4.4Expected runs4.0
+0.30Power rating+0.15
5.0Runs / game4.7
3.8Allowed / game3.8
8.7Hits / game8.3
1.27Home runs / game1.27
3.7Walks drawn / game2.9
80−52Season record77−55
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ATL chance
Our model fair51.9%48.1%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−10852%−12655.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves+10848%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byATL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more39%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more29%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ATLAJ Smith-Shawver SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 6.35 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ATL
Aug 25 at ATL
last game
Aug 25 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
LAD·ATL
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
5.0
runs / game
4.7
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.8
80−52
season record
77−55
40−26
home record
43−23
40−26
away record
34−32
L1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.3
1.27
home runs / game
1.27
3.7
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.39
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

LAD · ATL · 151 days
Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Aug 25at ATLATL 4 − 3
May 10at LADATL 7 − 2
May 9at LADATL 7 − 2
May 8at LADLAD 3 − 1
May 4, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
May 3, 2025at ATLLAD 10 − 3
May 2, 2025at ATLLAD 2 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Apr 1, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
Mar 31, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 1

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Aug 25at ATL3 − 4L
Aug 23vs PIT4 − 0W
Aug 22vs PIT4 − 3W
Aug 21vs PIT5 − 4W
Aug 19at COL6 − 4W
Aug 18at COL7 − 6W
Aug 17at COL11 − 5W
Aug 16vs MIL2 − 6L
Aug 15vs MIL1 − 4L
Aug 14vs MIL3 − 1W

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Aug 25vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 23at MIL4 − 2W
Aug 22at MIL1 − 4L
Aug 21at MIL1 − 2L
Aug 20at CHW2 − 0W
Aug 19at MIN4 − 6L
Aug 18at MIN1 − 4L
Aug 17at MIN2 − 4L
Aug 16vs ARI5 − 3W
Aug 15vs ARI3 − 10L